dashboard view

Dashboard

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What’s on your dashboard?

If you’re thinking about your trucks & tractors, the answer might be anything from gloves to a coffee mug to a clip for the rifle.

What I mean is “what are you watching on your dashboard?”Truck Dashbaord

  • Oil pressure?
  • Coolant temperature?
  • Exhaust temperature?
  • Seeding Rate?

All of these are important, and no doubt they all get significant amounts of your attention.

What are the consequences if any of these go into the RED?

 

What about your BUSINESS dashboard?

  • Working Capital?Financial Dashboard
  • Debt:Asset or Debt:Equity Ratio?
  • Unit Cost of Production?
  • Gross Margin?

What are the consequences if any of these go into the RED?

 

Which set of gauges get most of your attention? A failure on which set would be catastrophic?

When I was still farming, the first day of seeding in 2014 had one of these go into the red, only I didn’t know it because the gauge failed. In short, the tractor needed an engine overhaul because of severe overheating. Did it break the farm? No. Did it make seeding extra costly, and take longer than otherwise would? Yes. Did we survive? You betcha.

To Plan for Prosperity

We tend to do what we do best, what we like to do, and what we understand. Understanding the safe range, the limits, and the consequences of oil pressure or coolant temperature running into the red is something that is ingrained into us as youngsters who were imploring that we be able to run equipment. Yet, if no one teaches business owners the safe range, the limits, and the consequences of running their working capital or gross margin “into the red,” how will they know what to watch, or to watch at all?

For an intensive strategy on setting up and monitoring your business dashboard, call or email me anytime.

iconic backstop

Backstop

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What’s your backstop?

Recently, I read an article from some economist on interest rates. The premise was that interest rates have to rise in the short term, even though the economic signals aren’t yet supportive of an interest rate increase. The rationale: if the economy hits another pothole, and rates have remained at their historic lows, then there is little in the way of monetary policy options available to kick-start the economy. In other words, if rates stay low and the Bank of Canada (or the US Federal Reserve for that matter) needs to reduce rates to stimulate spending, how can they reduce rates that have no more room to go down? Do we toy with the idea of negative interest rates? It appears we have no backstop.

The challenge now is how to prepare for a potential future trouble spot when there is presently no wiggle room. To increase rates now will all but guarantee that our fragile economy will stumble. By not raising rates now leaves no room to reduce rates in the future (if needed) and all but guarantees that a potential trouble spot will be far more than a spot, it would be a huge stain. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. I do not envy Governor Stephan Poloz’s job at all…

Does it seem as though there was too much confidence from policymakers, thinking like it can’t happen to me? Some might say that the policymakers didn’t want to to what it took to prevent fire and now may have to fight fire.

This thinking can also apply to child rearing. Kids who typically get what they want, especially after whining, usually fall into tantrums when parents offer a firm “No.” Without laying a baseline for what is acceptable and tolerable behavior from their children, tantrums ensue. In other words, the parents have left themselves with no backstop.

An effective backstop for your business can apply to many different facets: personnel, equipment, agronomic, risk management, etc. From the financial perspective, your backstop should be made up of several key pieces:

  1. Working Capital (especially cash)
    Strong working capital solves many problems, and prevents even more. It reduces cash flow risk, takes significant pressure off of market risk, and best of all it creates growth opportunities.
  2. Equity (and its relation to debt)
    If your business is weak in working capital and strong in equity, these low interest rates offer the best opportunity to recapitalize your farm. On the other hand, I smiled at a comment made by a client late in 2016 when he was postulating how fun and profitable farming would be without burdensome debt obligation weighing (him) down and pressuring (his) cash flow.
  3. Management Strength and Discipline
    Too often I’ve seen farm businesses that were strong in working capital and equity whittle away at their backstop to satisfy their expansion desires. Strength and discipline is required to not get caught up in the euphoria of more and more assets. It is also required for the business to keep growing (not just in size and scale;) large cash holdings and significant equity can sometimes be a sign of poorly allocated capital. Strength and discipline refers to avoiding both (opposite) extremes, and staying on task and on point with your strategic business plan.

Ideally, your financial backstop is a balance of all 3 points above. Too much, or too little, of any one point will be far less effective as a functioning backstop.

To Plan for Prosperity

Knowing your risks and actively managing them is the key step to understanding how much of a backstop you need. Under-emphasizing your risks or over-emphasizing your backstop both have potential to be detrimental to your business’ health.

paperclips

Paperclips

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Many farm offices and kitchen tables are buzzing right now doing crop plans and working out cost of production scenarios. What makes money? What doesn’t? What can we really yield? What are input costs going to be?

For too long, “cost of production” was “inputs.” Seed, chemical, and fertilizer were all that were considered when discussing “cost of production.” Slowly, the recognition of fixed, or operating, or overhead costs came into play. But even then, I still find that much is left to be desired.

Regular readers of this commentary know that I preach “Unit Cost of Production (UnitCOP).” The thinking behind UnitCOP is to evaluate what it cost your business to produce one unit, whether that be a bushel of canola, a tonne of barley, an “eight-weight” steer, a kilogram of butterfat, etc. Obviously, the more units you can produce without increasing overall costs lowers your UnitCOP, as does producing the same number of units but with a lesser total cost.

The mindset of including all costs and expenses when determining cost of production continue to evolve. When in discussions with anyone, client or stranger, about cost of production, I often need to look for clarification about their parameters by asking “Whole farm?” Even this leaves much open to interpretation: whole farm to some means “every acre.” To me, it means every acre, yes, but also every expense.

An example that makes me scratch my head is when I read new articles containing info or quotes from someone in Manitoba Ag. Recently, I read this article about management of agronomic economics, when as with other similarly sourced articles I’ve read in the past the content describes “break even prices and yields” for various crops excluding labor. Why? Will the crop magically seed and harvest itself?!?!

Every cost, every expense must be considered when calculating cost of production. Right down to the paperclips for the office.

To Plan for Prosperity

The business of farming is difficult enough without making it harder to define profitability by ignoring some of your costs. While paperclips may not be critical to “production,” as a farmer/rancher/dairy-person/etc, you are in the business or producing grain/beef/milk/etc. And the costs to run your production business includes things like paperclips.

When evaluating results that might not have met expectations, ask yourself if you remembered the paperclips.

accounting

Accounting

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It’s nearing that time of year when you’ll be paying a visit to your accountant. Whether you are delivering a comprehensive report for final vetting and tax preparation, or a shoe box for “the works,” there are a number of questions and specific reporting attributes for which you should be asking your accountant. Of course, there are important actions you are responsible for as well. Here are three of the most important aspects to make a priority this year on your path to prosperity:

Inventory

Record your annual inventory accurately. This is important when reconciling your production and your sales to calculate your operating income. One of my more recent clients hadn’t implemented clear tactics for recording year-end inventory at the end of their 2015 crop year. Now, as we review past years, we are challenged to understand why they show an operating loss that year. There are anomalies in many income and expense categories when trended year over year. I challenged the accountant to explain, but since the accountant does not perform any type of “checks and balances,” only a compilation of client provided information, my clients are now facing the obtrusive task of reconciling each and every invoice & slip to see if there was a recording error. While you may be wondering, “What’s the big deal” the fact of the matter is that this “not a big deal” contributes to a reported $300,000 loss which is putting the banker at some discomfort. Would it still be “not a big deal” if the operating credit limit gets slashed because the financial reporting doesn’t support the existing borrowing limit? Is this as simple as an incorrect inventory figure provided by the farmer to the accountant because of slack or sloppy “estimates” of what’s in the bin?

Reporting

Readers of this weekly commentary have heard enough of my ranting about accrual adjustments and their importance to evaluating your business year over year. So let’s bypass the stated obvious and look down another path: what are you not seeing in your financial statement that would be beneficial for management purposes? I am a proponent of “more is better” when it comes to information (we can always discard what is not necessary much easier than trying to make decisions with vague information by yearning for what is not there.) As an example of a basic start, I support breaking the single line item of “Repairs & Maintenance” into two separate lines: one for equipment, the other for buildings. If you, as management, are trying to discern the subtleties of your various costs, would it be helpful to have this separation made?
There are many other suggestions that could be offered, but in the end, it’s your report so ask for what you want.

Depreciation

Hebert twitter depreciationIt continues to be the scourge of farmers to this day: income tax. It then is no wonder that farmers love depreciation. It’s a non-cash expense that reduces taxable income! But Kristjan Hebert tweeted a very valid concern that all farmers should think about. Depreciation is hidden…from sight. It is not hidden from the government, and the government has ways of collecting if you don’t manage your accumulated depreciation.
Accountants inherently assume that all farmers want to maximize depreciation expense to reduce taxable income, so rarely will your accountant initiate a depreciation conversation with you. This does not mean that if your accountant does not initiate the conversation that there is nothing to discuss! Talk to your accountant about your capital asset “depreciation pools.” Share your capital expenditure (CapEx) plan. Set the appropriate rate of depreciation that is in your best tax planning interests (HINT: you don’t have to take the maximum just because you can.)

To Plan for Prosperity

The financial statements created by your accountant is a package of some of the most critical management tools you need to make informed decisions. You not only have the right, but the obligation to create a report that is useful and meaningful to your management needs (and your accountant, as a strategic business partner, is more than willing to work with you…if you ask.)
1. You bear the responsibility for recording and reporting your inventory accurately.
2. Ask your accountant to create reports that are useful to you based on how you want to evaluate your business (within acceptable accounting practices, or course.)
3. Have a strategic discussion with your accountant about depreciation (HINT: it helps to have a strategy to discuss.)

It’s your business. Be accountable for it.

control-word-cloud

Control

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Happy New Year! My wish for your 2017, as I’ve extended to everyone regularly so far, is “peace and prosperity.” That may have been fortuitous as this, the first weekly commentary of 2017, carries a new name: Pragmatic Prosperity™.
Prosperity is not only my hope for the entire agriculture industry, it is my goal for every business I work with. Pragmatic describes the advice, strategy, and solutions we bring to each engagement. We are very excited about this evolution in our branding.

 

How do you employ control in your business? Is it over operations, people, cash flow? Those are quite broad descriptors, and when it comes to people, please recognize the difference between control and influence.

Here are the top areas to control in 2017 to achieve greater prosperity.

  1. Cash
    Working capital, especially cash, is a critical component of any successful business. Over the life of this weekly blog, you’ve read my constant rant about improving working capital. More and more important, the piece of working capital that needs focus, will be cash. A big part of working capital is inventory, but in a time when it is all too common for inventory to fall subject to grading issues, delivery glitches, etc, farms need the stability that comes from increased cash on hand.Expenses and debts unabashedly punish your cash. What are you doing to protect it?
  2. Marketing
    Even though we’ve had (generally) another banner year on the crop side, we have to give credit to the insulation from the commodity slide that we’ve enjoyed thanks to our slumping Canadian Dollar. Should the dollar strengthen, we’ll feel more of the pinch that our American neighbors are living with today. How would your cash flow look if you had to manage today’s expenses with 2010 prices?
    Far too many farms rely only on forward contracts. The reasons for it, I won’t speculate. Many tools and advisors exist to help you control your marketing (versus letting your marketing control you.)  When you’ve got full control over operating expenses (Point #3 below…keep reading) your marketing opportunities become more clear. This allows you to confidently price profitably.
  3. Operating Costs
    When we make more, we spend more (despite a contrarian strategy discussed here on May 17, 2016 – Spending Less is More Valuable than Earning More.) As farm incomes rose, so did farm expenses; what used to be “nice to have but could live without” has now become “must have” (in mindset anyway.) If we are to compare 2017 expenses to 2010 income (as suggested above,) why not look at 2010 expenses too? How have operating costs changed in your business over the last 7 years (2010 to 2016 inclusive)?

To Plan for Prosperity

You’ll note that the first item listed, cash, is at the top for a reason. However, if you start at the bottom, you’ll see how it is connected, how it flows and will get you to the results you desire, the results you may not think are achievable…but most certainly are.

Start with 3, it will have great impact on 2, which will lead to strength in 1. Control them all as you would control your equipment.
Make sense?
3…2…1…GO!

 

My First Tractor

Why Tractors are Sexier than Spreadsheets

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Blame Kenny Chesney. He didn’t sing “She thinks my spreadsheet’s sexy.” Across all genres, I’d bet there is no one immortalizing accountants, bankers, and financial analysts in song.

Chesney’s 1999 release, She Thinks My Tractor’s Sexy is one of my favorites. At a time when farming didn’t get much attention and wasn’t garnering a lot of respect, it was a feel good jam that pumped me up every time I heard it. Seventeen years later, it still does.

Please realize that my opening statement above is tongue-in-cheek. I do not hold Kenny Chesney accountable for why tractors are sexier than spreadsheets. But the question still begs, why are spreadsheets unpopular when compared to tractors? Both are tools with specific uses. Both tools are effective, highly powerful, and multi-functioning. Both can create efficiency that is almost immeasurable.

Business owners can hire someone to run either tool, the tractor or the spreadsheet. If you were to follow one of the cornerstones of my advice, “Do what you do best, and get help for the rest,” then you’ve already likely hired someone to drive the tractor, right?

A long tenured ag professional, who will remain nameless, recently during a conversation with me describing one of his frustrating client experiences quipped,”If driving tractors is more important than running the business, we’re very near the end.” We laughed at the absurdity of the words, yet were stymied by their truth.

In a meeting with a client recently, we were discussing their growing ability to gather data from their operations. They shared the question posed by their equipment specialist “What are you going to do with all this data?” I instantly shot back,”Just collect it; we’ll figure out how to use it.” The goal is to make data collection a natural part of business activity, a habit, not a challenging task on the ever growing “To Do List.”

What we will do with that data, collected in part by/from the tractor, is more than likely import it to a spreadsheet. In that spreadsheet, we will be able to delve into the figures, sort them into a usable format, and ultimately make decisions that are more informed than ever before.

Direct Questions

Does running the tractor take priority over running the spreadsheet? Why?

If you’re not running your spreadsheet, who is? Does this pose a risk in your mind?

Do you make equipment purchase decisions without consulting the spreadsheet?

From the Home Quarter

Informed decisions lead to higher profitability. Higher profitability has a way of reducing risk. Reducing risk increases confidence.

Since spreadsheets make for informed decisions which ultimately increases confidence, and since confidence is sexy, doesn’t that make spreadsheets sexy?

Back to you Mr. Chesney…

 

 

agex-conf

Musings from the AgEx (Agricultural Excellence) Conference

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For those of you who are regular readers of this commentary, you know full well how I feel about farm shows in general and what it takes to draw crowds. Every major farm show on the prairies is so heavily focused on production, when we are already some of the best, if not THE best producers, in the world. Where we are lacking (generally speaking) is on the management and financial side of the business.

That is why I am such a fan of the Agricultural Excellence (AgEx) Conference. It is 2+ days dedicated exclusively to management. No presentations on crops, weeds, fertilizers or equipment; although, had there been, we would likely have seen 4-5 times the number of attendees. Overheard during networking at AgEx:”Want to get 1,000 farmers in the room? Show them some new equipment, give them a hat and a hotdog…that’s how!” If that rhetoric has more than a grain of truth, it sustains my railing on on the problem we have in the industry.

The title of this year’s AgEx was “Plan and Prosper: Set the Course for Farm Success.” This isn’t a typical preach from the podium event; the format included live debate, panel discussions, bear-pit sessions, and a choice of six concurrent workshops. If you couldn’t attend in person, it was broadcast via webinar.

Here are some of the very high level points made at the conference:

  • As a producer, you sell into a global community. Understand how that affects you (and that means deeper than simple “supply and demand.”)
  • If you expect to remain relevant in an ever changing industry, you must face change with confidence not fight it with vengeance.
  • There is still a large gap to bridge between the generations who farm together.
  • There is a TON of great information, resources, and advice available to you as a producer. All you have to do is ask!

There is much work to do, both on your part as producers and business owners, but also on our part as advisors:

  • We (as an industry) need to collectively come to agreement on how to calculate major financial metrics, such as gross margin.
  • We (as advisors) need to create synergies with all of our clients’ other advisors so as to better service each client.
  • We (as advisors) must elevate and consistently deliver the message that success is defined by management…period.
  • We (as an industry) must support each other to provide a unified front against those who would rather we fail.

From the Home Quarter

It is not difficult to find yourself pumped up and motivated when leaving an event like AgEx. The quality of information and networking available is second to none. I rubbed shoulders with a National Director from one of the largest ag accounting firms in Canada, an international farm advisor, a former diplomat, among others…oh, and I now also have a tour guide on PEI in the form of a young potato farmer!

Excellence is within all of us if we choose to focus on it. If we let fear hold us back, our results will show it (and we shouldn’t be surprised.)

As I will continue to say, “Do what you do best, and get help for the rest.”

Over-Optimism (a.k.a “It Can’t Happen to Me”)

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Recently I’ve sensed great concern from some bankers regarding the effects on the cattle market because of this TB outbreak in Alberta. The effects are still not definitive but could prove devastating.
The fallout from this recent harvest in western Canada is still being measured. Creditors are in full disaster preparation mode so as not to be bombarded by voluminous delinquent payments over the next 5-6 months.

A valuable part of the work I do is to help clients make capital expenditure and credit decisions. After a number of difficult crop years from excess moisture, many farms have great concern over their financial stability and fully recognize that they have very little room for error. Pains are being taken to consider how every decision could affect the farm’s future profitability.

Many long term business decisions have been made on the premise of $12 canola and $8 wheat, or $2/lb weaned calves (as a kid, I sold my first calf for $0.80/lb.) Servicing debt on land and/or equipment payments during the high points of the cycle is easy, but as we’ve seen, the debt often outlives the business cycle.

Some farmers, especially those who are relatively new to farming, have never experienced tough financial times. They have no first hand experience of BSE or the 2004 frost; they know little outside of high yields, good quality and strong grain & cattle markets. Sadly, there are many who have first hand experience of those dramatic market influences yet have permitted themselves to have short memories.

I remember giving a presentation in 2013, in a community I won’t name so that I don’t shame them, where the audience was verbally angry with me for stating that we were a “global average crop, not a bumper crop but an average crop globally from $9 canola and $4 wheat.” They thought I was crazy because, in their opinion, canola had a new floor price and it was $12.

Regularly I am forwarded an article from some US agency (it varies week to week depending on who is forwarding it to me) that provides insight into the rapidly decreasing appetite for risk into grain farming from US lenders, or the sizable decline in land rent rates, and the reduction in land values. I often tweet these articles with the question, “Does anyone think this can’t happen here?”

I am encouraged by a shifting focus among farmers that centers more on ROI (Return On Investment) and less on size & scale. It bodes well with a saying (it’s not mine) that I like to lean on: Better is better before bigger is better.

Direct Questions

How do you view risk and its potential to affect business results when making business decisions?

Have you considered how a major market shock could affect your profitability, and if so, what have you done?

If your profitability will be sub-par in 2016, what adjustments are you planning to make for 2017 and onward?

From the Home Quarter

While no one can deny that “things are different now,” there is still much we can learn from history. Maybe the most important lesson from history is that major business-impacting events are very unpredictable. As such, maybe we should be more prepared for the predictable events so that the unpredictable ones aren’t such a major shock…

success criteria

Success Criteria

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It is always interesting to listen to the variety of different opinions on how each farm views “success.”

For many it is measured by a tangible: number of acres under cultivation, number of combines in the fleet, etc.
For others, it is an intangible: family harmony.
Most of the time though, year by year success is measured in bushels.

Here is my response to a tweet just the other day:

Profit is always the supreme success criteria. Generally, I stop there because so much of the focus at the farmgate is primarily, almost exclusively on production, and it drives me crazy! But we simply cannot ignore the basic tenet of primary production: you need the bushels!

In the commodity business, and I don’t care if it is grains, livestock, oil, or minerals, the only businesses that produce commodities with consistent profitability are those that produce at the lowest cost per unit…period.

What’s the best way to lower your cost per unit? Produce more units, and in this case that means more bushels! Of course, the caveat is that you must produce more bushels without incurring more cost, or at least if costs must increase that their increase is not linear to (ie. less than) yield increase.

I am continually challenging my clients to find ways to reduce their overall costs. In an industry that has dedicated immeasurable amounts of focus on production, it is not unreasonable to admit that many farms are already producing maximum yields for their region, soil type, weather patterns, etc. Without further advancements in plant genetics, increases in yield beyond the average will mostly be achieved by the good fortune of ideal weather during the growing season.

Control what you can control (your costs) and accept what you can’t control (the weather.)

Direct Questions

How do you calculate your Unit Cost of Production (UnitCOP)? Do you calculate it at all?

How do you determine when the chase for more yield is no longer profitable?

What strategies do you employ to reduce your cost per unit?

From the Home Quarter

As read in the tweet above, “How about net profit?” Profit is the reason we’re in business, is it not? A business without profit is not a business, it is a charity!

Business is always evolving, growing, changing…maybe our definition of success should change too.

 

 

inadequate working capital

Critical State – Maintaining Inadequate Working Captial

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I’ve gone on record many times saying that I believe that the lack of adequate working capital at the farmgate presents the greatest single risk to the future of many farm businesses.

Working Capital is calculated by subtracting your current liabilities from your current assets.

wrkgcap-graphic

It is important to calculate working capital correctly, not only to satisfy the requirements of your creditors, but for your own management information as well. Overstating your working capital will give false confidence. Understating your working capital could cause you to unnecessarily inject capital into the business, or to miss out on taking advantage of business opportunities.

Maintaining inadequate working capital carries many risks, both direct and indirect, such as:

  1. Relying on operating credit and trade (supplier) credit.
    Heavy, or total, reliance on outside credit to provide access to the capital necessary to run your farm is as great a danger as a reckless crop rotation. There is no guarantee that these credit vehicles will continue to be available in the future as they were in the past. How will the crop get seeded next year if there is no working capital, and no operating credit, available?
  2. Using debt to pay debt.
    Many businesses have plead their case by illustrating that the debt payments were always made on time. What they failed to recognize was that the debt payments made were sourced from an operating line of credit, and therefore using debt to pay debt.
  3. Loss of profit potential.
    By leaning on outside credit, many farmers are forced to sell grain when they need cash to make payments, revolve credit lines, etc. instead of selling grain at a point of opportune profit. Selling grain when you have to instead of when you want to can mean the difference between profit and loss.

In regards to building and protecting working capital, here are just a few of the tactics I offer:

  1. Know your Unit Cost of Production.
    This goes beyond crop inputs. It includes ALL costs to run the farm from fuel, to insurance premiums, to paperclips for the office. Knowing UnitCOP allows you to clearly understand where your profit is made.
  2. Stretch loan and lease amortization periods.
    Interest rates are low, and recently there are hints that it might go lower yet. Stretching your payback period allows you to enjoy making lower payments. This is especially helpful in a year when cash flow & profitability will be tight. Accelerate payments in years when cash is abundant.
  3. Plan with Strategy; Discipline in Tactics.
    Far too often, we see businesses that operate without a plan by simply focusing year over year on operations (getting the work done) and as such, most decisions are made in reaction to a need or want. By building a clear & well-thought out plan, decisions become proactive when employing discipline through the execution of the plan. Deviating from the plan (IE. a great deal on a new pickup!) can jeopardize working capital and future profitability.

Direct Questions

How often do you calculate your working capital? (HINT: it should be monthly at a minimum)

What is your minimum level of working capital to have available? (HINT: it should be 50%-100% of your annual cash costs)

What is your strategy to increase and maintain adequate working capital?

From the Home Quarter

Inadequate working capital causes business owners and managers to make decisions they otherwise wouldn’t. It forces their hand. It takes away their control.
Abundant working capital creates opportunity, allows flexibility, and puts control of the business in the owner’s and/or manager’s hands.
Critical State can be only a breath away when working capital is inadequate.