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Prevention or Contingency?

I read Alan Weiss regularly and one of his daily blog entries from early July gave me inspiration for this
week’s article.

Alan consults to Fortune 500 Companies and solo practitioners alike, and in the entry I refer to he asks
readers, “What are you doing with your clients, helping them to fight fires or to prevent them?”
Currently, I’m doing as much fire-fighting as I am fire prevention. I enjoy the latter far more, and I know
clients do to.

The challenge is that it is hard work to build and implement a prevention plan. It’s more fun to “give’r
while the going’s good” and figure out the rest later. For many farms, later has arrived and now it’s time
to fight fire.

The prevention plan will consider 3 metrics that must be maintained:

1. Working Capital
2. Debt to Equity
3. Cash Flow

graph15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Working Capital is simply the difference between your Current Assets and your Current Liabilities. To
complicate things, there is a process on how to include accurate figures for each; it’s not hard, but it
takes work. If your working capital is negative with little opportunity to return to positive, seek help
immediately.

Debt to Equity, usually represented as Debt:Equity or D:E, is a ratio of your total liabilities to your
equity. For realistic measurements, calculate your net worth for the equity figure. Net worth is fair
market value (FMV) of all “owned” assets less all liabilities. The difference is your net worth. If your
debts are $2million and your net worth is $1million, your D:E = 2:1. In some industries, a D:E of 2:1 is
acceptable; in agriculture, it is considered too high. Target your D:E at 1:1 or less.

Cash Flow is going to be the new-old buzz word. As it was the dominant focus of the 1990’s and early
2000’s, cash flow will once again be front and center. Total up you cash flow requirements for the year
and don’t leave anything out (like living expenses.) When compared to what expected gross production
revenues are going to be this year, are you happy with the result?

Direct Questions

Can you recognize and describe the importance of adequate working capital?

Debt to Equity is a measurement of “what you owe versus what you own.” Are you happy with how your
metric balances out?

Cash makes loan payments, equity does not. Are your financing obligations using up the cash you need
to pay bills, cover living expenses, or build adequate working capital?

From the Home Quarter

Your prevention plan needs to have these three metrics measured, tested, and measured again.
Strategies for how to manage your finite resources so as to build and maintain a prevention plan are
easier than fighting fires or trying to put together an emergency contingency plan when you first see
smoke. You might have excellent fire-fighting skills, and your contingency plan could be water tight, but
the fire still occurred. Isn’t it better to prevent what caused the fire then to fight it?

If you’d like help building your farm’s prevention plan, then call me or send an email.

GFP FI 2

The Drought Dilemma

The smoky haze we started inhaling yesterday drives home more than ever just how dry it really is.
#Drought15 is the Twitter hashtag to learn about how bad it is beyond our respective back doors. By all
accounts, crops are suffering and market prices are starting to reflect it. Those who are in an area that
has been, and/or remains, too wet just might be coyly denying that they ever complained about the
rain.

While it is too early to get a handle on any semblance of accurate yield estimates, people I’ve been
talking with have tossed around phrases such as “July harvest” on lentils, and described wheat crops
that are ready to push heads despite only being approximately 2 feet tall. What might be in those heads
if another hot dry windy week prevails?

As a farmer, you are an optimist. Even the most pessimistic ornery old codger you can imagine is still an
optimist if he’s a farmer. If he wasn’t, he’d never put a crop in the ground each spring. But as optimistic
as “Well, if we get one good rain in the next 4-5 days” sounds, it’s not going to make it rain. Despite the
drizzle we’re seeing today, one rain does not make a crop. If you’ve got payments to make, payables to
cover, even payroll to meet, you might want to start thinking about how that will all get done if
#Drought15 persists.

  1. Speak with your creditors.
    They’re not clueless; they hear the weather forecasts and read the crop reports. But they also
    won’t assume; they won’t assume that you’ll have trouble making payments because your crop
    is not going to meet expectations. As far as they’re concerned, you’ll be fully capable of
    satisfying the obligations you promised to make when you signed the loan or lease
    documents…unless they hear otherwise.
    And remember, your lenders are not problem fixers, so coming to them after the trouble gets
    real makes it far more difficult. They have more opportunity to help when they can be proactive.
  2. Consider your options.
    Do you remember Growing Farm Profits Weekly Issue #9? “Life and business can often be like
    snowmobiling: when trouble is ahead sometimes you need to pull back and sometimes you
    need to stay on the throttle.” What is your best option considering your crop’s development to
    date? I recently read an article discussing the possibility of reseeding barley on fields that have
    been froze out or droughted out. Considering the dire need for feed this year, cattlemen will be
    interested in green feed or silage barley. Is it time to consider how that might pencil out?
  3. Change your plans.
    The decisions you made last year and the year before were based on the best information you
    had at the time. The current situation differs greatly and probably requires a new decision.
    Swallowing pride and allowing yourself to change/reverse/discard old decisions could be exactly
    what your business needs. Nay, it IS what your business needs because your business is
    constantly changing and so should your decisions. Knowing when to do so is just as important.

Direct Questions

How would you rate yourself as far as being agile to your financial obligations in light of poor crop
conditions?

How would your stress level decrease if you took 10% of the time and effort you spend on worrying
about the existing crop conditions and used it to contact your strategic partners and advisors to amend
2015 expectations?

Are you staunchly sticking to your past decisions or are you being flexible and responsive to the needs of
your business?

From the Home Quarter

About 17 or 18 months ago, I blogged about how we need to reset what our expectation of success
really is. After the record 2013 crop, the 2014 crop year was poised to be a real disappointment in
comparison. Considering so far this year we generally went from adequate or excessive moisture in
March to a drought by mid-May, I’d suggest we look at 2015 for what it is and be realistic about what
we can call success. To give you a glimpse of what I mean, in 2014 I was working with a farm that
projected an operating loss due to the excessive moisture, crop quality issues, dropping grain prices, and
high fixed costs. The comment during planning was “OK, so we’re expecting to lose only about $300,000
in 2014; that’s decent considering what it could be.” They reset their expectation of success based on
what they saw.

Take a good hard look at your current year, be realistic with expectations, and make changes as
required. We can help make sense of it, take the emotion out of it, and assist with establishing new
plans.

If you’d like help planning your farm for business and personal success, then call me or send an email.