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Complacency

Complacency

You may recall the anecdotal story of an old fisherman sitting on a pier casting and catching all morning. With each catch, he’d pull out a small ruler to measure it. Some fish he’d keep, while others got thrown back. Upon closer observation, we learn that the ruler is broken and only measures to 9 inches; on top of that, any fish that measures more than 9 inches is thrown back while the smaller fish are kept. When confronted, the fisherman admits that his frying pan is only 9 inches in diameter.

When I was farming, on a number of growing years we put up some huge yields, bigger than my dad ever grew. His feedback was, “It’s too much (crop). What are going to do with it? There isn’t enough bin space!”

In both stories, we see examples of where there is a lack of interest or intent to be better, bolder, etc. And if something did not fit the narrow view, it was discarded as being more work that it was worth. Yes, progress brings about new challenges that differ from those we are familiar, but the opposite (meaning status quo) will eventually lead your business into its death-spiral.

Complacency is an incredibly dangerous business condition. You can’t always see it coming. It may be contagious. Treatment is sometimes difficult if sufferers refuse to consider they may be affected. Complacency causes your business to stop growing. It creates an environment where too often heard around your farm are the 6 deadliest words in business: “We’ve always done it this way.”

To Plan for Prosperity

  1. Know what you do best, and keep striving to do it better and better.
  2. Acknowledge what you don’t do well and get professional help with it so that it doesn’t become your Achilles heel.
  3. Recognize that GROWTH is not just size and scale. Seek out multiple ways to grow.

“Do what you do best, and get help for the rest™” is one of the cornerstones of my advisory work with clients. Complacency can be dealt with quickly with the right help, positive results can be had, and the “habit” can be broken.

Focus

Results Focused or Activity Focused

Most farms will be receiving their year end financial statements from their accountants by now, if not already. Those with fiscal year ends of January 31 or later might still be waiting for their year end to be finalized.

How did your last fiscal year turn out? What were your financial results? If you are results focused, you’ll be paying attention to metrics like:

  • Net Profit
  • EBITDA
  • Gross Margin
  • Return on Equity

Activity focused operations typically don’t review financial reporting, instead directing energy towards:

  • Greasing
  • Shoveling
  • Driving
  • Anything else…

To Plan for Prosperity

There are some who will say that “money and profit aren’t everything.” Don’t listen to them. They aren’t focused on results. Yes, health and family are more important than money because money cannot buy health or a happy family, BUT without profit no one will be happy.

Profit is the fuel for your business. And like the diesel in your tractor, if you’re not making sure you have enough, things are going to stall.

shaking my head

Shaking My Head

There are so many instances where I’ve heard someone say this to me in the last number of months. Here are some examples of what I’ve heard.

“I’m shaking my head…

  • wondering how we got talked into this.”
  • at these guys who push their rotation trying to get a big payday.”
  • trying to figure out how they can keep getting more credit when I can’t.”
  • at these guys who haven’t learned from the mistakes of others.”
  • at these guys who keep going full throttle when they don’t know their numbers. Do they even have a clue how they’re doing?”
  • at how some of these guys just keep spending. Where is it coming from?”
  • why we didn’t buy that land 5 years ago.”
  • why we paid so much to rent that land 2 years ago.”
  • trying to figure out how anyone can be profitable paying that kind of rent.”
  • at what it’s going to take for the people who need help the most to realize they need help!”

While these aren’t my words, I concur with most of them. We must not punish ourselves by berating yesterday’s decision because of today’s new perspective. We can’t change the past, we can only move forward. BUT, we can apply future risk management to today’s opportunities when determining what decision to make.

To Plan for Prosperity

Lately at most of the events which I’ve been speaking, I’ve been giving reference to “the ripple effect.” This pertains to the effect that today’s decisions will have on other aspects of our business, especially future results. We often see long term decisions being made (especially around land, buildings, and equipment) based on short term results (Eg. one year’s profitability.) I continue to be a proponent of “long term assets securing long term debt” and if you subscribe to that logic, then shouldn’t long term decisions be based on long term results?

Average

Don’t Settle For Average

It was the headline that struck me.

Don't settle for average _embedded

Settling for average in any aspect of your business will lead to certain demise. If everything was average (yields, quality, market prices, rainfall, heat units, weed pressure, disease pressure, input prices, equipment repair frequency, wages, overhead, etc, etc, etc…you get the picture) then farming would be easy.

But it’s not.

Fair to say that if you are projecting average yields and prices for 2017 you’ll be measuring those against higher-than-average costs. This is likely to total down to a negative bottom line.

I’ve never been a fan of “average.” As my old friend Moe Russell likes to say, “You can drown in a river that averages a foot deep.”

Average, to me, is nothing more than a feel good guide when looking to validate poor results. For example, acknowledging that yields were only a couple bushels below average means nothing Table for Averagewithout quantifiers like market prices (meaning we’ve calculated gross revenue), like input cost (meaning we’ve calculated gross margin), or like operating costs (meaning we’ve calculated profits from operations.) Here is a table to illustrate what I’m getting at:

If average is profitable over the long term, then we must acknowledge the need to adjust all facets of our profit calculation when one facet is below average. The problem is that generally we are seeing farms operate with higher than “average” costs and trying to pay for them with “average” yields.

To Plan for Prosperity

Our profitability is not determined by where it falls on a bell-curve, so why would we accept “average?”

 

scoreboard

Scoreboard

We’ve just come out of an age where keeping score didn’t matter. Everyone got a participation ribbon. No one’s feelings got hurt. Maybe we’re still in this age, I don’t know.

Why do we want to keep score? “Because we want to win” is a good answer. But what if we’re not competing against an opponent, what then?

Keeping score is a form of measurement. Whether you’re measuring progress or efficiency, minimum standards or ultimate goals, a measurement is required. In your business, you’ll find the most critical financial measurements in your financial statements.

I’m not much of a golfer, but I do enjoy the game. While I don’t get out nearly often enough, when I do, I always keep score. My playing partners occasionally don’t care to keep their score, and that’s just fine. I’m not playing to compete against them; I’m competing against myself. I know how good I can play, and each round I strive to match that, and maybe get a little better. For the record, I’m about a 15 handicap; I am looking forward to the day I break 90.

You may not view your business as having competition that you need to “outscore.” But when it comes to finite resources like land and labor, make no mistake you are in competition and whoever is leading on the scoreboard is most likely to win the prize.

The scoreboard in sports shows who has most points. The scoreboard in Monopoly is simply who owns the most property and hoards the most cash. The scoreboard is what you make it, but it is worthless if you don’t use it (and check it once in a while…)

To Plan for Prosperity

Run your farm like a business, and it makes a great lifestyle.

Run your farm like a lifestyle, and it makes a terrible business.

If I knew who said it first, I could offer attribution. The analogy then is if you don’t want to keep score, are you happy with a participation ribbon?

ThinkingMan

Thinking Time

This is following through on something I sort of dared myself to do in a tweet recently:

Thinking Time

I smiled at Danny’s tweet about about the lack of bites while ice-fishing and how it was contributing to crop plan changes for this spring’s upcoming seeding season (or “planting season” as it is also called.)

Thinking time is something that we seem to have less and less of these days. With the constant bombardment from numerous social media platforms, phone calls, text messages, and emails, it is amazing we are able to get anything done. Quiet time, disconnected from our “devices” is not only critical to staying sane (disclaimer: I am not a psychologist and that is not a psychological prescription) it is also required for some thinking time.

Consider the many aspects of your business, and the thousands of decisions you make every day. This doesn’t even touch on the “major” business decisions that need to get made through the course of the year. Many of those daily decisions are reactionary because the situation is something you’ve been through many times before, or you may have prepare for the decision with some planning. Other situations require that you stop what you’re doing to make the decision, whether that be from the situation being something you’ve never dealt with before, or possibly because you just hadn’t considered it and you’re therefore not prepared.

For me, thinking time happens all too frequently; it’s just how my mind is (always grinding away on something.) The challenge for me is that if I’m not prepared to record or act upon (what i think is) a brilliant thought or idea, it can get lost. It’s been suggested that I keep a note pad or recording device with me all the time. A great theory that is tough to enact when I”m driving, or when I’m laying awake in bed trying so hard to fall asleep; both are situations when my quiet time, my thinking time, seems strongest.

My new strategy is to dedicate a portion of each day to thinking time. It’s not scheduled, nor is it rigid in practice. I allow myself the time, possibly a few times each day, to do the creative thinking I need to do in my business when the juices begin to flow. This allows me to take notes of my brainstorming, to elevate my confidence in that I have captured what are (in my mind) brilliant thoughts and ideas, and reduces angst over the “I had a great idea on _____________, and I lost it!” <insert curse words here>

When I was farming, some of the best opportunity for thinking time was in the tractor; I’m sure it’s the same for many of you. The problem is that thinking time in the tractor while seeding is too late to be crop planning. Although, it is a terrific time to give thought to your financial reporting from the previous year and tactics to improve for the current year.

To Plan for Prosperity

There is an almost immeasurable amount of information coming at us from the virtual world and from the plethora of farm shows scheduled across the prairies all winter. To sort out all of the information available to you, and not be overwhelmed in the process:

  1. Set aside some designated thinking time on a regular basis (unplugged, no devices, no distractions;)
  2. Enlist the guidance of advisors who experts in their field;
  3. Give yourself the leeway to make mistakes. Perfection is unattainable.

Thinking time should not be limited to current issues or the next three months. Also include the next three years. Your business is an ocean freighter, not a speed boat; changing course and making adjustments cannot happen quickly, they take time and deliberate action.

Free Land

Free Land

Getting farm land for free, whether it be purchase or rent, still won’t be profitable if operating and overhead costs are too high. If overall farm operations require high yields and prices to cover your break-even point, then you’re running way too close to the line.

Ask yourself if your 2017 break-even yield is near, or well below, your 5 year production average. If it is near, then there isn’t much wiggle room, is there? Everything needs to go right, including the external factors you cannot control, like weather.

Does your 2017 crop plan include a sensitivity test? What is your sensitivity to a 10% decrease in yield? What is your sensitivity to a 10% decrease is price? How close do either, or both combined, bring you to break-even?

To Plan for Prosperity

To quote my old friend Moe Russell, “What rabbits are you chasing?” Using Moe’s analogy, the rabbits you should be chasing are found in your operations costs: machinery, labor, repairs & maintenance, fuel, etc, and in your overhead costs: interest, carrying costs, etc. These are the internal factors, the factors that you can control.  And if these have gotten out of control, even free land won’t be profitable.

dashboard view

Dashboard

What’s on your dashboard?

If you’re thinking about your trucks & tractors, the answer might be anything from gloves to a coffee mug to a clip for the rifle.

What I mean is “what are you watching on your dashboard?”Truck Dashbaord

  • Oil pressure?
  • Coolant temperature?
  • Exhaust temperature?
  • Seeding Rate?

All of these are important, and no doubt they all get significant amounts of your attention.

What are the consequences if any of these go into the RED?

 

What about your BUSINESS dashboard?

  • Working Capital?Financial Dashboard
  • Debt:Asset or Debt:Equity Ratio?
  • Unit Cost of Production?
  • Gross Margin?

What are the consequences if any of these go into the RED?

 

Which set of gauges get most of your attention? A failure on which set would be catastrophic?

When I was still farming, the first day of seeding in 2014 had one of these go into the red, only I didn’t know it because the gauge failed. In short, the tractor needed an engine overhaul because of severe overheating. Did it break the farm? No. Did it make seeding extra costly, and take longer than otherwise would? Yes. Did we survive? You betcha.

To Plan for Prosperity

We tend to do what we do best, what we like to do, and what we understand. Understanding the safe range, the limits, and the consequences of oil pressure or coolant temperature running into the red is something that is ingrained into us as youngsters who were imploring that we be able to run equipment. Yet, if no one teaches business owners the safe range, the limits, and the consequences of running their working capital or gross margin “into the red,” how will they know what to watch, or to watch at all?

For an intensive strategy on setting up and monitoring your business dashboard, call or email me anytime.

Super Bowl Management Quality

Super Bowl Management Quality

They should have seen it coming.

Didn’t some pundit declare something like a 99.9% chance of a Falcons victory with about 8 minutes left in the game? Somebody please clarify if that was actually the case.

A rather pompous thought that I kept to myself while watching Super Bowl LI, after Atlanta took a 28-3 lead, was “Brady’s just smiling at the bigger point differential that he’ll get to cover on his way to a win.” In hindsight, that comment would have been brilliant…had I actually said it.

They should have seen it coming.

Yes, it is easy to prognosticate in hindsight, but that’s not the point here. What did it take, what did the New England Patriots do to win another championship, aside from setting 24 new Super Bowl records and tying 7 others?

  1. People
    Bill Belichick has been the head coach of the New England Patriots for 17 seasons. He is in the top 5 winningest coaches in NFL history.
    Tom Brady has virtually cemented his place as the NFL’s greatest quarterback of all time. Based on the last 17 years of performance, he was a steal in the 2000 NFL draft, going in the 6th round (199th)
    The rest of the team contains very few “superstars,” yet when their superstar QB was suspended for 4 games to start this season, the team went 3-1.
  2. Management
    This starts at the top with vision. In the five seasons before Robert Kraft bought the franchise in 1994, the team was 19-61 (a .238 winning percentage). In 1994, the team made the playoffs, and did so 4 of the first 5 years under Kraft’s ownership.
    Management’s plan clearly put great emphasis on people. Since Kraft took ownership, the team has only had 3 head coaches, with Belichick, the current head coach, being in place for 17 of 24 seasons of Kraft ownership. The team is part of a privately owned family enterprise.
  3. System
    What words could you come up with to describe the system that has propelled, and maintained, team success for so many years, including the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history? Many had felt that the game was over at half-time: no team has ever come back to win the Super Bowl from more than 10 points down, Atlanta was dominating both sides of the ball (offence and defense,) and New England was making mistakes (turnovers, dropped passes, missed kicks.) Yet, the Patriots found a way to win. They had a system, and stuck to it, never giving up, never quitting. It would have been easy to deviate from their system in the face of such adversity; it would have been easy to lose motivation under what was deemed to be an insurmountable deficit.

The New England Patriots are by all accounts a highly successful business. How does your business compare? Can you reach top decile?
People: do you have the right people in the right place? It does not matter if they are family members or not, evaluate everyone, even yourself.
Management: does your management team have a vision and a strategy to achieve results that would put you in the top 10% of comparable businesses?
System: have you developed systems that are proven to work year in and year out, providing you with dependable efficiency and results? Or is every year a new roll of the dice?

Management has a vision, they put the right people in place, and everyone executes the system.

To Plan for Prosperity

Set yourself up for success. Model your business, and your approach to business, after other successful enterprises. We may not be New England Patriots fans because we envy their consistent competitiveness and success, similar to how we may not be oozing with adoration for the most successful farms in our area, but doesn’t that make them a great model to follow?

For the record, I’m not a Patriots fan, I am (at best) a casual NFL fan. I was actually hoping Atlanta would win Super Bowl LI (for no specific reason,) but I’m not disappointed with the outcome; it makes for some great storylines and it forces everyone to admit some admiration for an enterprise with the success rate of the New England Patriots.

Your 2017 Plan

Your 2017 Plan

If it’s not done yet, you’re already behind.

They say to be a successful chess player, one must always be thinking 3 or more moves ahead, each with one or more alternatives on how your opponent will respond. The same can be said for business. Successful business owners are already thinking about 2020 and 2023, with a big picture vision of 2027 (that’s three, five, and ten years out.) They know that the decisions made today will affect their circumstances not only next year, but beyond.

This is a difficult focus to maintain when trying to get through the day to day challenges while under fire. Weather, break-downs, employee or family bickering can all make your days’s best plans worthless is a blink. And when days roll into weeks, weeks into months, and months into years, it is easy to not have the time (or not take the time?) to plan because we’re just trying to survive the daily onslaught, and maybe find time for an evening or weekend off…possibly even a short holiday in summer.

The most common objection to planning that I’ve heard over the years goes something like this: “Things change so much and so often that any plan is worthless in a month, or less!” That is an example of the mindset that I won’t work with (I’ve just given a hint at how I vet any prospective business engagement.)

A plan is not a binding document; it is more like a road map that you’ve built yourself.

Like a map:

  • your preferred path to your destination is clear;
  • your options, should you need to detour from your preferred path, are laid out;
  • what lies beyond your destination is illustrated for your consideration.

Unlike a map:

  • you’re not taking someone else’s word for what lies ahead because you build your own route.
  • you have the power to create your own alternative options, not just accept what is already there;
  • you can rewrite your plan if it isn’t working well; good luck trying to rewrite a map.

Understand that the total package of planning for your business is actually 4 parts: Strategic (what), Tactical (how), Operational (execution), and Financial (results & growth). Don’t let this scare you! To form a habit of planning, one does not need to complete all 4 tiers. Start with what you know (for most farmers, that is “operations.”) While you likely have your entire operations requirements in your head, putting it on paper and sharing with your team is highly likely to reduce inefficiencies and frustration this spring.

To Plan for Prosperity

Choose your destination (goals.)
Set your course (strategy.)
Decide who is driving, who is support, etc. Provide your team with the training and resources they need to do their job (tactical.)
Execute, but have preparations in place for the unexpected (operational.)
Be informed on how each alternative action will affect your results and growth potential (financial.)

There’s truth in the old saying, “If you don’t know where you’re going, how will you know when you get there?”