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Backstop

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What’s your backstop?

Recently, I read an article from some economist on interest rates. The premise was that interest rates have to rise in the short term, even though the economic signals aren’t yet supportive of an interest rate increase. The rationale: if the economy hits another pothole, and rates have remained at their historic lows, then there is little in the way of monetary policy options available to kick-start the economy. In other words, if rates stay low and the Bank of Canada (or the US Federal Reserve for that matter) needs to reduce rates to stimulate spending, how can they reduce rates that have no more room to go down? Do we toy with the idea of negative interest rates? It appears we have no backstop.

The challenge now is how to prepare for a potential future trouble spot when there is presently no wiggle room. To increase rates now will all but guarantee that our fragile economy will stumble. By not raising rates now leaves no room to reduce rates in the future (if needed) and all but guarantees that a potential trouble spot will be far more than a spot, it would be a huge stain. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. I do not envy Governor Stephan Poloz’s job at all…

Does it seem as though there was too much confidence from policymakers, thinking like it can’t happen to me? Some might say that the policymakers didn’t want to to what it took to prevent fire and now may have to fight fire.

This thinking can also apply to child rearing. Kids who typically get what they want, especially after whining, usually fall into tantrums when parents offer a firm “No.” Without laying a baseline for what is acceptable and tolerable behavior from their children, tantrums ensue. In other words, the parents have left themselves with no backstop.

An effective backstop for your business can apply to many different facets: personnel, equipment, agronomic, risk management, etc. From the financial perspective, your backstop should be made up of several key pieces:

  1. Working Capital (especially cash)
    Strong working capital solves many problems, and prevents even more. It reduces cash flow risk, takes significant pressure off of market risk, and best of all it creates growth opportunities.
  2. Equity (and its relation to debt)
    If your business is weak in working capital and strong in equity, these low interest rates offer the best opportunity to recapitalize your farm. On the other hand, I smiled at a comment made by a client late in 2016 when he was postulating how fun and profitable farming would be without burdensome debt obligation weighing (him) down and pressuring (his) cash flow.
  3. Management Strength and Discipline
    Too often I’ve seen farm businesses that were strong in working capital and equity whittle away at their backstop to satisfy their expansion desires. Strength and discipline is required to not get caught up in the euphoria of more and more assets. It is also required for the business to keep growing (not just in size and scale;) large cash holdings and significant equity can sometimes be a sign of poorly allocated capital. Strength and discipline refers to avoiding both (opposite) extremes, and staying on task and on point with your strategic business plan.

Ideally, your financial backstop is a balance of all 3 points above. Too much, or too little, of any one point will be far less effective as a functioning backstop.

To Plan for Prosperity

Knowing your risks and actively managing them is the key step to understanding how much of a backstop you need. Under-emphasizing your risks or over-emphasizing your backstop both have potential to be detrimental to your business’ health.

control-word-cloud

Control

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Happy New Year! My wish for your 2017, as I’ve extended to everyone regularly so far, is “peace and prosperity.” That may have been fortuitous as this, the first weekly commentary of 2017, carries a new name: Pragmatic Prosperity™.
Prosperity is not only my hope for the entire agriculture industry, it is my goal for every business I work with. Pragmatic describes the advice, strategy, and solutions we bring to each engagement. We are very excited about this evolution in our branding.

 

How do you employ control in your business? Is it over operations, people, cash flow? Those are quite broad descriptors, and when it comes to people, please recognize the difference between control and influence.

Here are the top areas to control in 2017 to achieve greater prosperity.

  1. Cash
    Working capital, especially cash, is a critical component of any successful business. Over the life of this weekly blog, you’ve read my constant rant about improving working capital. More and more important, the piece of working capital that needs focus, will be cash. A big part of working capital is inventory, but in a time when it is all too common for inventory to fall subject to grading issues, delivery glitches, etc, farms need the stability that comes from increased cash on hand.Expenses and debts unabashedly punish your cash. What are you doing to protect it?
  2. Marketing
    Even though we’ve had (generally) another banner year on the crop side, we have to give credit to the insulation from the commodity slide that we’ve enjoyed thanks to our slumping Canadian Dollar. Should the dollar strengthen, we’ll feel more of the pinch that our American neighbors are living with today. How would your cash flow look if you had to manage today’s expenses with 2010 prices?
    Far too many farms rely only on forward contracts. The reasons for it, I won’t speculate. Many tools and advisors exist to help you control your marketing (versus letting your marketing control you.)  When you’ve got full control over operating expenses (Point #3 below…keep reading) your marketing opportunities become more clear. This allows you to confidently price profitably.
  3. Operating Costs
    When we make more, we spend more (despite a contrarian strategy discussed here on May 17, 2016 – Spending Less is More Valuable than Earning More.) As farm incomes rose, so did farm expenses; what used to be “nice to have but could live without” has now become “must have” (in mindset anyway.) If we are to compare 2017 expenses to 2010 income (as suggested above,) why not look at 2010 expenses too? How have operating costs changed in your business over the last 7 years (2010 to 2016 inclusive)?

To Plan for Prosperity

You’ll note that the first item listed, cash, is at the top for a reason. However, if you start at the bottom, you’ll see how it is connected, how it flows and will get you to the results you desire, the results you may not think are achievable…but most certainly are.

Start with 3, it will have great impact on 2, which will lead to strength in 1. Control them all as you would control your equipment.
Make sense?
3…2…1…GO!

 

inaction

Critical State – Inaction

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Inaction, or procrastination as it is sometimes called, is the antithesis of entrepreneurial success.

It is true that there are many other factors that can contribute to a lack of success for entrepreneurs, but in farming, the effect of inaction can have immediate and catastrophic consequences. When we opened this dialogue on Critical State, a list of excuses for inaction were provided: not monitoring bins; too cold to haul grain; can’t scout the crop for bugs/disease, we’re at the lake. We all know of these circumstances, and others, as exhibited by our neighbors, shared during a presentation at an industry event, or as we may have learned the hard way ourselves.

If it was someone else’s inaction, we can easily see the effect, quantify the financial ramifications, and then wonder “how could they let that happen?”
If it is our own inaction, we downplay the effect and the financial ramifications, and then bemoan our “bad luck.”
This is not meant as a condemnation. It’s just human nature.

In my work with my clients, I encourage (almost to the point of insistence) that management processes and standardized workflow be developed and implemented. Consider for a moment virtually any business you deal with ever. Here are some examples:

  • Your crop inputs supplier has consistent procedures surrounding safety, receiving & storing inventory, and invoicing.
  • Your grocery store works within minimum and maximum inventory levels on a week by week basis.
  • Your accountant follows a standardized workflow for receiving, sorting, & compiling your information, and for preparing your financial reports.
  • Your favorite restaurant has a protocol for greeting patrons, seating them, & ensuring they are eating in a reasonable time, not to mention criteria for food quality, safety, and handling.

Following a set plan of action almost completely eliminates the risk of inaction. Grain will never heat in a bin if you check it on a set schedule with a short frequency. Crop pests and disease will not bring catastrophic damage to your crops is you scout regularly with a short frequency. And yes, hauling grain in very cold weather is not fun and it does bring about other unpleasant challenges. However, if you, or someone you know, has been unable to move grain on time due to no space at the elevator, no trains, etc, then you know how that can affect cash flow, which leads to late bill payments, or poor revolving of the line of credit, etc. If that LOC has an interest rate penaly for late payment, your profit could disappear to cover that interest penalty. Still think it’s too cold to haul grain?

Direct Questions

Every decision has consequences, be it positive or negative. How do you accurately weigh the consequences when making operational decisions?

Describe how the pleasure of inaction now is more positive than the risk of harm later.

How do your operational decisions impact your financial outcome? If you have trouble making this connection, please call me immediately.

From the Home Quarter

Entrepreneurs are renowned for their tenacity and vigor in achieving their goals. Yet many entrepreneurs fail for many reasons, one of which is inaction. But cut yourself some slack: every entrepreneur does not instinctively know exactly what to do and when to do it, many need guidance. Enter people like me who help our clients in areas where they are not instinctively excellent. One of my favorite phrases is, “You don’t know what you don’t know.” But being oblivious to better ways can become an excuse for inaction. As a farmer, you take far too much risk for margins that are too thin and unpredictable to leave anything to chance.

ready-for-harvest

Change, Risk, and Fear

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Change brings risk. Risk brings fear.

 

“Risk and the appearance of risk aren’t the same thing.

In fact, for most of us, they rarely overlap.

Realizing that there’s a difference is the first step in making better decisions.”

Seth Godin’s Blog – Apr 18, 2016

 

Change is the only constant in life. Charles Darwin is often credited with saying, “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.”  There is no question that when it comes to production practices, farmers’ ability to change is very apparent.

Now if that would only apply everything…

There is a change on the horizon that almost every farmer will face: how to adapt to life when he or she is no longer farming. That tune has been sung, and will continue to be sung until the message gets through. Yet, by the relative inaction of most farmers to address succession, or transition as it is often called, it is easy for those of us beating the drum to ask, “Why aren’t they getting the message?” I’m less sure that the message isn’t getting through; I’m more convinced that it is the act of facing change that harks fear into the farmer.

Risk, on the other hand, is something every farmer has an appetite for. Without it, one cannot farm. The act of dryland grain farming in its simplest form carries more risk than most non-farmers could even comprehend. Contrast that to the risk that many farmers take in relation to cash flow and debt, and I have to question their comprehension of risk.

One will not fear what one perceives as zero risk. Lacking appreciation for the financial risk from decisions that will strain cash flow and debt levels is why there is little fear of that risk. Lacking action on addressing farm transition is based on a perceived risk.

“Risk and the appearance of risk aren’t the same thing.” The financial risk that many farms put themselves in stems from the LACK of the appearance (inability to fully grasp) of risk. The avoidance of the farm transition discussion is a result of the appearance (created in one’s own mind) of risk. In both cases, the real risk is not considered, but the appearance of risk, or lack thereof, is given full credit.

Direct Questions

What is the REAL risk of farm transition activities? That the next generation won’t do it as well, or the same as you…? (HINT: your dad felt the same way when you took over and you did just fine!)

If you believe a risk does not exist if you do not acknowledge it, explain how that same theory would work with your spouse or children?

Fear is a very real motivator, or demotivator. How do you go about understanding the risk to mitigate the fear?

From the Home Quarter

With change, there is always risk. Risk has an effect on everything we do, whether the risk is real or perceived. The fear of negative (or undesirable) outcomes can be crippling. It is easy to see how change can bring immediate crippling fear now that the connection has been made.

Change the way you look at risk, and you’ll have less to fear.

 

borrowing-binge

Borrowing Binge: At The Farm and Beyond

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Last week, I was emailed an article by Rob Carrick of The Globe and Mail. Carrick writes about Canada’s borrowing binge; no not our federal government deficit and growing debt, but Canada’s household debt. Let’s see how it applies not only to household debt, but farm debt.
**NOTE: Carrick’s article is below in italics, with my comments inserted in bold.

“It’s getting harder to see anything but a messy ending for Canada’s household debt binge.

This isn’t the beginning of a lecture on reducing your borrowing. It’s more a resigned observation of human behaviour. You can warn people to act now to avoid a potentially bad outcome in the future, but they’re not likely to do anything unless they see trouble dead ahead.

The second quarter of 2016 was a vintage moment in debt accumulation. Incomes rose, as Statistics Canada puts it, “a weaker-than-normal” 0.5 per cent, while household debt growth clocked in at 2 per cent. This is the Canadian way – keep debt levels growing ahead of gains in income.

On two counts, this is bad personal finance. Your household spending flexibility is negatively affected in the short term (you have less money to save, for example), and you’re more vulnerable to financial shocks ahead, such as rising interest rates or an economic decline that kills jobs. Clearly, most people aren’t worried about these risks.”

What risks make you worried about your debt load? Can you control them (ie. fusarium, sclerotinia, excess moisture, interest rates, commodity prices?)

“The explanation starts with the fact that we live in a world in which conditions for borrowing are as good as they can ever be. Interest rates are low and the economy, while tepid, is producing enough jobs to prevent unemployment from becoming a big issue.

In the field of behavioural finance, there’s a term called “recency bias” that describes what’s happening here. People are looking at recent events and projecting them into the future indefinitely. So far, it’s working. We’ve had low rates and a slow-moving but stable economic for years now, and there’s no sign of imminent change.”

“Recency bias” describes the not so distant thinking that canola wouldn’t go below $10/bu, meaning that “$10 was the new floor” (circa 2012.) There were many other behaviors and attitudes that came with that thinking. How quickly forgotten are the years of poor quality and inconsistent yields…

“Under these conditions, there’s no reason to heed the repeated warnings from the Bank of Canada, economists, finance ministers, credit counsellors and personal-finance columnists about the dangers of taking on more debt. And so, the ratio of household debt to disposable income hit a record 167.6 per cent in the second quarter, up from 149.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2008.”

Is there a reason to heed the warnings from ag economists, management advisors, and creditors about the dangers of taking on more debt….? Depends how much debt you currently carry. 

“Recent warnings about debt levels give us an idea of what could happen if there are any economic shocks ahead. The credit-monitoring firm TransUnion said earlier this week that more than 700,000 people would be financially stressed if rates went up by a puny quarter of a percentage point, and as many as one million would be affected if rates went up by a full point.

The Canadian Payroll Association recently surveyed 5,600 people and almost 48 per cent of them said it would be tough to meet their financial obligations if their paycheque was delayed even by a week. Almost one-quarter doubted they could come up with $2,000 for an emergency expense in the next month.

These reports highlight some of the risks of the borrowing binge we’ve been on for the past several years, but not all. Decades down the road, we may find that people didn’t save enough for retirement in the 2010s because they were so burdened by debt. Student debt levels might rise in the future because parents weren’t able to help with tuition costs.”

An interest rate sensitivity test would answer this question for your particular operation. But more important that interest rates, which in reality are unlikely to experience any significant increase in the short-medium term, is income volatility. The debt payments won’t change, but a farm’s ability to make those payment will. If the debt payments can only cash-flow when yields and price are at high points, there is trouble ahead.

“That second-quarter data from Statscan show clearly how deaf people are to warnings about the dangers of debt. In the worst three-month period since the recession, economic output fell by an annualized rate of 1.6 per cent.

The reaction of employers to this economic dip can be seen in the fact that income growth was weaker than normal in the second quarter. Consumers barely flinched, though. They’re impervious not only to warnings about the dangers of high debt levels, but also to periodic bouts of economic volatility like we saw in the second quarter. Only a big shock will get their attention.

There’s no point trying to forecast when a shock will happen, but what we do know for sure is that the financial and economic conditions of today will change. We remain in an adjustment phase following the financial crisis and recession late in the past decade and it’s far from clear what the new normal will be.

Things could get better for the economy, or they’ll get worse and jobs will be vulnerable. Either way, people are going to have to make stressful adjustments that they could have avoided by reducing debt today. This could get messy.”

From the Home Quarter

It has been well documented that farm debt in Canada is high. In the next breath, there is all kinds of spin added to the argument such as stating current debt in 1982 dollars so as to compare to the carnage that was beginning 34 years ago. Not to try to deflate the validity of constant dollar comparisons, but the cold hard reality is that existing debts, today’s liabilities, need to be paid back. Compare the situations all we like, describe how “things are different now;” either way, no matter how you slice it, current farm incomes need to pay present day debts.

So when I hear of lentil yields often coming in at half of expectation, when I hear of wheat and durum crops again decimated by fusarium, when I hear of malt barley crops grading as feed because of all the rain, I can only hope that those farms who experience such production results this year are not over-leveraged. Is this a hint of “the big shock” Carrick wrote about, as it would apply to agriculture? Or is that big shock something already on the radar like China slamming the door on Canadian canola that doesn’t meet spec?

The borrowing binge at the consumer level, as Rob Carrick wrote about, could have drastic implications on the Canadian economy; his words also apply to agriculture. We could be in for a rough ride, “this could get messy” as Carrick wrote.

Sage words from a 30+ year farm advisor: “Take your worst net income over the last 10 years and measure it against today’s debts. How do you feel?”

If you don’t feel good from that experiment, please call me or email for strategies to help ease the discomfort.

Crop Failure

Critical State – Crop Failure

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Do you have the financial strength to survive a crop failure?

Considering that most farmers are still primarily production focused, there is likely no greater catastrophe in their mind than a crop failure. With Mother Nature offering challenging conditions every year (even 2013 which had a strong majority of farmers enjoying “the perfect growing season,” there were still many areas that faced insurmountable weather challenges) one would think that prudent risk management would involve many of the following strategies, each with a prescribed weight based on each farm’s specific need.

Provincial crop insurances, Agri-Stability, private revenue insurance, hail insurance, etc. are the most popular risk management tools used by farmers today. Most farms use one of those, or a combination of several. Each farm’s weighting of the various programs will be as unique as each farm. However, many farms use none of these risk management tools. They will each have their own rationale for why. Some are so well capitalized that they can self-insure, take the financial hit from poor production and keep on rolling. Others do not understand how the programs work, and because of their ignorance, they choose not to take part. In the middle is the majority, broken into two parts: one that clearly understands the nuances of each program, and utilizes it to the fullest, most prudent extent (which might mean not using them at all); the second does not bother to gain such understanding and simply does what’s always been done year after year.

There are four distinct factions described above in how many farmers approach risk management. Which one do you fit into?

  1. Well Capitalized, avoids using the programs: you have abundant savings and working capital to withstand more than one year of zero, or near zero, gross revenues and choose to eliminate the premium costs for risk management programs.
  2. Lacking full comprehension of programs, avoids using the programs: you feel that they are too complicated, too expensive, and never pay you.
  3. Intimate understanding of the programs, uses (or does not use) the programs to the best net benefit to your farm: you know the ins and outs of the program(s) better than anyone who answers phones at the respective help desks. You carefully weigh premiums, coverages, and benefits with precision so that all match beautifully with your production practices. This may include not using the programs because the cost-benefit is not sufficient.
  4. Not bothered to learn about program nuances, uses (or does not use) the programs because “that’s what we’ve always done”: you don’t have time to read through the acres of lingo and jargon that are provided to you, so you just blindly take the same coverage you’ve always taken, or not taken any coverage at all. “Just go with what we did last year!”

Of course, these groupings ignore the geographic issues in that, for example, some farms span so many miles that a hail storm is incredibly unlikely to affect the entire farm, some farms are so large that program premiums can represent a small fortune, and some farms (large acres or not) are in such tight proximity that weather risk cannot be “spread out.”

Direct Questions

Which category above do you fall into? If it is #2 or #4, what is your risk management approach?

Do you prefer reliance on risk management programs over building strong working capital? Why?

Production is critically important. How do you manage the risk of crop failure?

From the Home Quarter

Farming is risky business, and the risk of losing a crop can bring a farm to the point of Critical State. How we manage the risks, and in this discussion, the risks pertaining to crop failure deserve attention that is paramount. What certainly gets most of the attention when it comes to managing the risk of a crop failure is inputs. And while there is no arguing the importance of doing all you can to produce the highest yield and best quality crops, there is more to the equation. Much of what will bring success or failure to your efforts in production is out of your hands.

The only way to get off the train of risk management programs (and cash advances, and trade credit, and operating credit) is to build abundant working capital.

You cannot shrink your way to greatness and you cannot spend your way to prosperity.

canola field

Critical State – Debts Get Called

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Imagine, if you will, that it is a nice harvest day in late August. The combines are serviced and running, warming up to head to the field. You’re in the house grabbing a quick bite and filling your water jug before embarking on what looks like a long afternoon of harvesting. The phone rings, it’s the bank. They tell you they’ve made the decision to reduce their market exposure in ag lending in your area, and that you’ve got 30 days to “find a new lender.”

While I hope this is an imaginary situation for most of you, it is a true story for a client of mine from my banking days. It wasn’t my bank that “de-marketed” them; that happened years earlier, but it left a sour taste in their mouth. They had cash flow challenges like almost all grain farms did coming out of the 90’s, but their file was not at risk of going south. There was no indication in the previous weeks or months that their loans may get called, so you could only imagine the shock, the disappointment, and the anger at getting that type of phone call at the beginning of harvest. How could they find the time to seek a new lender when the combines had to roll?

Here are some terms that borrowers need to understand:

  1. Demand Loan: this is a loan that provides the lender with the right and opportunity to demand full repayment of the loan at anytime. While there still may be time remaining on the loan term, notice of demand to repay the full balance is an option the lender can exercise.
    Structuring your borrowing to include no demand loans does not guarantee that you wouldn’t face a situation as described above. Demand loans are typically listed as a current liability in your financial statements which makes your working capital look offside.
  2. Effective Annual Interest Rate: interest payment terms, specifically interest compounding periods, affect the actual dollar amount of interest you pay on a loan. Interest that is compounded more frequently will cost more than less frequently (this also applies to your interest bearing investments: more frequent compounding pays you more interest and vice versa.) Lenders are required to calculate and disclose the annual effective rate so that borrowers can have a standardized figure to compare.
    Consider 5% interest compounded semi-annually; the effective annual rate is 5.0625%. Consider 5% compounded quarterly, and the annual effective rate becomes 5.09453%. The difference between the posted 5% and the annual effective rate in these two examples is the compounding interest.
  3. Covenants: as the term implies, covenants form part of the binding agreement between you and your lender. Breaching a covenant could put your total borrowing at risk of being demanded by your lender. Covenants can be for anything from minimal financial metrics to submitting financial reporting. Sluffing these off will hurt your lending relationship.

Direct Questions

What information do you require from your lender to give you more knowledge and comfort?

How are you being proactive in managing your relationships with your lenders?

From the Home Quarter

Receiving notice that your debts have been called instantly puts your business at critical state. While having an excellent relationship with your lender does not guarantee that you won’t be the victim of a corporate de-marketing decision (like my former clients above,) it will put you at the top of the list of clients to keep if there is ever a culling program initiated by bank HQ.

hide and seek

Hide and Seek: How Perfection Kills Success

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While on holidays in early July, I watched our group of 3-5 year olds playing hide and seek. They were having a ball because each of them is learning to count so being the seeker was their chance to show everyone how high they could count, because the thrill of the chase is invigorating, and because the risk of getting caught (found) adds an element of excitement.

What I found consistent while watching these children play was how all of them, no matter how long the “seeker” counted, kept moving from one hiding spot to another. Yes, these are small kids, aged 3 to 5; yes, they are too young to grasp the strategic concept of the game; yes, they were actually hoping to get found. It appeared as though they would hide, then identify a spot that looked better, so they’d leave their first hiding spot to go to another. Once there, they’d realize that it either wasn’t as good as it looked, or that they see yet a better hiding spot elsewhere. And the cycle continued until the seeker was done counting.

The point is not meant to be critical because it applies to older kids who do understand the strategy of hiding stealthily so that the seeker can’t use his other senses to pick up a hint where the hiders might be. Either by making noise while hiding, or by wasting their precious lead time looking for the ideal place to hide, they often leave themselves vulnerable by trying to find the perfect hiding spot.

These children were exhibiting a behavior that we, as adults, emulate far too often. We regularly short-change ourselves by seeking perfection, or our personal idea of it; we jeopardize success in the now because we we see something that we “think” is better.

The young children playing hide and seek spent their entire hide time, while the seeker counted, their entire hide time was spent moving from spot to spot, often giving up a great hiding spot for a poorer one. The older kids playing hide and seek waste their hide time by trying to find that perfect spot that no one has thought of, and when they can’t find it by the time the seeker announces “Ready or not, here I come,” the hiders are usually not ready and end up settling for a terrible hiding spot just so that they actually hide and aren’t caught just standing there in the open…

How does this apply to you or your business?

  • How much time over the winter is spent researching the “perfect” seed variety to grow?
  • How much time is invested into monitoring equipment prices and inventories to feed the desire of owning a seed tool (sprayer/tractor/combine) which might be “that much better” than the one on farm now?
  • How much time is spent in frustration thumbing through all the resorts available to choose from in the Caribbean so that your winter vacation will be “perfect?”

Direct Questions

Is there more analysis put into short term decisions than long-term or even permanent decision?
(It took 3 months to decide what canola to seed…but we’ll just expand that bin yard over there!)

Is there more analysis put into what we find fun and less into what we don’t enjoy?
(I know precisely how many combines like mine are for sale in Manitoba right now, but I haven’t bothered to consider if I could reduce my interest rates.)

Have you passed by a really good hiding spot because you were trying to find the perfect one?

From the Home Quarter

“Paralysis by Analysis” is a not so old adage that I lean on regularly. It is a challenge for detail guys like me because we want to be sure we’ve got everything right and in place before we take the next step. “Paralysis” because sufferers never take the next step; they justify their inaction because the “analysis” isn’t complete. News Flash: it is never complete!

I have made great strides in shucking that condition. It pokes its head out occasionally…I treat it like “Whack-A-Mole!”

Your farm will succeed if your canola variety yields 3 bushels less, but stands better than the other variety you desired. Seeking a marginally better sprayer probably won’t make enough difference in your overall profitability to cover the added cost. And take the damn vacation…you deserve it, you’ve earned it! Stressing over picking the “right resort” kills part of the fun. It’s like trying to pick the juiciest apple on the tree by looking at them from the ground.

go fishing

If You Are Happy Just Floating Along, Go Fishing

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I wasn’t trying to be funny when I quipped what is the title of this commentary while in a meeting with an excellent banker and the exciting young prospective client he introduced me to. It just sort of rolled off my tongue in the moment. It was a hit; both men enjoy fishing.

The premise of that particular conversation was profit. In my work as a lender and a consultant, I venture to say I’ve looked at hundreds and hundreds, maybe thousands, of financial statements. Those statements have told a vast array of stories, from the depths of successive and devastating financial losses to the opposite end of the spectrum with profits that make you wonder if your’re drunk when reading it. Many hang around the middle, somewhere south of an impressive profit , but still north of a fundamentally adverse loss. It is sad to discover than many farmers create this break-even situation by choice.

The choice is often centered around tax and the great lengths taken to avoid payment of income tax. The list is long and arduous; it won’t be found here.

Let’s put this in real terms. Most farms I’ve analyzed range from approximately $250/acre on the low side to $400/acre (or even higher) as the figure that represents whole farm cash costs. That is the amount of cash required to operate the entire farm for one full year. Now, I got my math learnin’ in a small town school, long before calculators were allowed in the classroom, back when cutting edge computer technology was the Commodore Vic 20, but math is math, so if we consider a 10,000ac farm with $400/ac costs, we’re looking at $4,000,000…each year!

Granted, there aren’t too many 10,000ac farmers who are happy to break-even each year, but they are out there. At the end of the day, I don’t care if you’re 400 acres or 140,000 acres, expect a profit!

Farmers take far too much risk each year to not expect a profit. If you walked $4,000,000 into any bank, could you get a better return than 0%? Of course! You could get a risk free rate in GICs that would probably approach 3% (or maybe 4%…any bankers reading this what to comment???) So I ask why, if you could get a risk free rate of 3% or 4%, why would you take a sh_t-ton of risk to accept a 3% or 4% return farming?

Direct Questions

Investing $4,000,000 in GICs and getting a risk-free 3% annual return grosses $120,000 per year before tax. Could you live on that?

Land owners/investors demand a rent that mimics 5% return on the value of the land. If you invested $4,000,000 in land, you could earn upwards of $200,000 gross in rent, plus enjoy the long term capital appreciation…could you live on that?

What is an acceptable return to demand from your business…based on the amount of risk you take each year?

From the Home Quarter

Farming is not for the faint of heart. Farmers accept the financial risks that come with farming because they understand them. The opposite if often true of stock markets: farmers aren’t typically investors in equity markets because generally they don’t fully understand the risks. But savvy stock investors who do understand the risks still expect a positive return, they aren’t happy “just getting by.”

If you’re happy just floating along, go fishing.

If you expect to get well paid for the risks you take, call me.

 

despair

Critical State – Disability or Loss of Life

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Frequently over the next several weeks, we will delve further into the many factors that can lead your business to a “Critical State.” To refresh your memory, one reaches critical state when at the point of significant change. The significant change can lead to a state that will have a profound effect on you, your family, or your business. Thus the term “critical.”

Disability or Loss of Life: whether it be one of the major stakeholders in your business, a member of your family, or one of your employees, this is often the most catastrophic change.

Although disability is not guaranteed to happen, the end of one’s life is certain. Arguments have been made as to which is more difficult to manage through. I have experienced both in my family.

What is your strategy, your back-up plan, if someone in your family or your business suddenly became disabled or was killed? How would you continue? Who else knows what that person knows so that the only hardship you must deal with is the emotional one?

  1. Financial: if control rests with only one person, everything financial is instantly in limbo if that person passed away. Secondary signors can be established. Power of attorney should be in place (applies during disability.) Something as simple as writing down account numbers and passwords in a notebook stored in a locked safe can be incredibly beneficial to those who are left behind, struggling to carry on while dealing with their grief.
  2. Operational: “Were those peas on the west half sprayed? When? With what?” A crop could be lost, and subsequently a farm could be lost, if important operational information is not recorded and readily available if/when the person with that knowledge in his/her head is hurt or worse. The importance of managing your business information has been raised here on many occasions.
    What about grain deliveries? Who authorized those holidays for the staff? Etc…
  3. Personal: too often, major crises such as death or disability can lead to a personal “critical state.” Relationships break down under the stress, families fighting on the way to the funeral home, etc. Conversations with family, a current and well prepared will, and preparations for crisis are all required to bring everything back down from “critical state.”

Direct Questions

Do you have a will, and is it current?

Health care directives (also known as living wills), financial power of attorney, and final wishes should all be laid out so that the decisions are not left to those left behind. These are your decisions and the appropriate legal documents allow you to have some control while you’re not able to take control. Have you put these in place, and if not, why not?

 

Early on in most new business engagements, I ask about wills, powers of attorney, life and disability insurances, etc. The answers are as varied as the people I work with. Most have these fundamental pieces in place, and many more have already begun some very intriguing and creative ways to facilitate business succession. From Joint Ventures, to funded buy-sell agreements, to estate freezes, and share purchase plans, there is no right or wrong way to plan, only a series of possibilities that can be “more right” than some others.

I celebrate the plans that are already enacted, and push hard on those who have none.

From the Home Quarter

Not taking action to plan for the inevitable does not delay the inevitable, it only creates extra hardship for those left behind.