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inadequate working capital

Eat to Live, or Live to Eat

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This week’s title is common phrasing when dealing with people who struggle with weight loss. While there are many factors that come into play for those who struggle with weight, a person’s caloric intake is often a major contributor. Making smart decisions about what to eat, when to eat, and how much to eat can be challenging for many people who are trying to do a better job of managing their health, not just those with weight issues. The question of “why” they eat gets into the psychology of the issue, which, coincidentally, leads into the real topic behind this week’s commentary.

Spending time at Canada’s Farm Progress Show in Regina each June has been something I’ve looked forward to for as long as I can recall. Remember, I knew I wanted to farm since I was less than 10 years old, so the Farm Progress Show was a more tantalizing buffet to the teenage me than even an actual buffet! (BTW, I still have an appetite like an 18 year old farm boy.)

The desire for more and new farm equipment seems almost insatiable, and begs the question:

Do we have all this equipment so we can farm, or do we farm so we can have all this equipment?

  • I recently met a young farmer who, while struggling to establish adequate cash flow, explained why another 4WD tractor on his 2,000ac farm will make him more efficient (he’s a sole operator with no hired help…how one man can drive more than one tractor at one time is something I can’t quite wrap my ahead around.)
  • You may recall from a few months ago the fictional story about “Fred” and how he NEEDED another combine. Despite his banker’s advice, he forged ahead.
  • Conversely, another farmer I speak with frequently is feverishly trying to rid himself of the over-abundance of iron on his farm.
  • Another is protecting his farm’s financial position by keeping the absolute bare minimum amount of equipment on his farm. Nowhere is there a “nice to have” piece of equipment on that farm; everything is “fully utilized.”

During the week of the June show in Regina, I read a tweet from an urban, non-farming young lady who was seeing the Farm Progress Show for the first time; it said (something along the lines of) “all this big beautiful equipment makes me want to go farming!”

Direct Questions

What circumstances must be present for you to consider additional equipment?

Does any equipment deal have to make for a sound business decision, or simply fill a desire?

Is your equipment a tool to operate your farm, or is it the reason you farm?

From the Home Quarter

In these weekly editorials, you have read about Mindset, about Strategy, and about Focus; these topics (and many of the others) challenge the conventional thinking in the industry today.

Those who bow to the mistress that is their farm equipment are only enjoying short term excitement. The mistress entices her suitor, subservient to the raucous cycle, and she soon becomes the one in charge.

Just ask anyone trying to get out of multiple leases…

trickledown effect of too much debt

The Trickle-Down Effect of Too Much Debt

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One would think we learned something from watching the US housing market collapse at the end of the previous decade. Yet, here we are, seven or so years later and many are making the same mistakes that were made by countless US homeowners.

Granted, the macro factors that helped to create the US housing crisis are not prevalent here in Canada. My favorite term from the US crisis was “NINJA” Mortgage: No Income? No Job? …APPROVED! Lending criteria in Canada isn’t quite that liberal.

What exacerbated the problem in the US was how homeowners were using their homes as a personal ABM, taking cash out whenever they wanted for whatever they wanted from the rapidly growing equity they had in their homes because the house values just kept increasing. They leveraged the “found” equity they had in their homes to feed their consumer appetite.

Here in Canada, and specifically farms on the Canadian Prairies, we’ve seen something similar. Rapidly appreciating farm land is being used to secure more borrowing, and often to secure the consolidation of other loans. The renaissance of farmland value appreciation, especially in Saskatchewan, added a dangerous amount of fuel to a fire of pent up demand. Land “equity” was used for the feverish acquisition of equipment, buildings, and more land.

In the US, while sub-prime mortgages kept payments low, everyone was happy to be ticking along with borrowing and spending to their heart’s content…until the sub-prime period ended and the piper needed to be paid. With a property fully leveraged and no ability to repay the debt, many homeowners resigned themselves to foreclosure. Those who may have had an ability to pay the debt saw the value of their fully leveraged property start to decline because of all the other foreclosures, so when they found themselves underwater, they too went the route of foreclosure.

No one is arguing that things are different here. True. Borrowing criteria is more stringent in Canada. What is similar, however, is the experience of a rapid appreciation in the value of real estate and the leverage of said appreciation to support more (other) debt.

I was talking with a 17,000ac farmer recently who was very aggressive in expansion over the last several years. He has increased the size and scale of his farm in every way: land, equipment, labor, and debt. He made no bones about continuing to leverage all assets, including the appreciating land and his depreciating equipment, to the fullest extent in an effort to facilitate further expansion. The scourge of his actions over these last few years was the incredible drain on his cash flow to service all this debt. This came to light for him when recently he needed land equity to source an operating line of credit so that he could meet his debt payments.

Direct Questions

Have most of the increases to equity on your balance sheet come from appreciation of asset values or have they come from building your retained earnings?

How has your Debt to Net Worth changed over the last few years?

Are you drawing on your operating line of credit to make loan payments?

From the Home Quarter

It amazes me how what was ingrained into our long term memory for so long was so quickly forgotten. The memories of the indescribable hardships of the 1980s and 1990s have seemingly been overtaken by the boom years of 2007-2013. The willingness to replace the history lessons of tight margins and poor cash flow with the euphoria of big profits and cash to burn has led to many farms now facing a debt and cash crisis similar to what was common in the final 20 years of the last century.

The trickle-down effect of debt stems from when debt levels increase as fast as, or faster than, the borrower’s long term cash flow and net income. While asset levels increase, sometimes very rapidly, tremendous growth in debt levels eat away at potential equity and use up available cash flow. While the land base has expanded and late model equipment efficiently farms all the acres, while the bins may be full and the employees are busy, it all trickles down to cash.

When the demands on your cash are a raging river, it is pretty hard to live on a trickle.

 

 

Shaking Hands

The Farmer-Banker Dating Game

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When I went back to college in my mid-20’s, a mature student by definition, it was because I found a course and career path that would allow me to bridge my passion for agriculture & farming with my finance minded brain. My goal, as my friends and family will attest, was to be the kind of ag-banker that was a partner, not a foe, of the farmer.  My view at that time, which was a time that we were in the depths of a very real farm crisis at the end of the 1990’s, was that farmers “generally” had a poor view of bankers. I aimed to change that perception.

Now as a management advisor, I still aim to bridge that gap. I invest myself into building good relationships with bankers so as to have a list of qualified partners whom I can refer in to my clients for financing requirements. Here are the top 3 points to remember when considering a new bank relationship.

 1. Perfection is Not Required on the First Date

The initial meeting is a first date. Think about it: you’ve met someone you’re interested, you’ve had an interesting conversation that identifies some common interests, and you eagerly and excitedly agree to go on a date. On that first date, it’s a lot of “what do you do for fun?” and “what kind of music do you like?” If you’re really getting into it, you might discuss your date’s political views! You aren’t deciding on the first date if you will or will not marry this person; you’re just hoping to learn enough about him/her to decide if you want a second date.
The initial meeting with a new prospective banker is a first date. You’re getting to know each other. The banker wants to know how your farm is doing financially, how you manage & make decisions, and what you vision is of the future. You want to know how the banker manages his/her client relationships, how the bank would deal with a farm like yours, and how everyone would expect to work together should you take your relationship “to the next level.” On a first date, no one expects perfection. Each person on a first date easily overlooks the little nuances that may, or may not, become an issue later on. No one needs to be perfect on a first date with a banker.

 2. Be Aware of Where You Are At, Where You Have Been, and Where You Are Going

The greatest risk to derailing any chance of a second date is for you, as the borrower, to not have an adequate grasp on the effects to your business from past issues & business decisions. Bankers appreciate accountability when it comes to “what happened” in the past. Own your choices, both the good one and bad ones. Describe what you are doing to rectify your poor decisions from the past and what you are doing to ensure those same choices aren’t repeated. Have an idea (at least) of a vision for what you want your business to look like in 5 years, recognize what it will take to get there, and understand what you need to do in the near term to take positive steps towards that vision.

 3. A “Partnership” Mindset

While taking your relationship with your banker to the next level has been described by some as a “marriage, I agree in figurative terms only. Your relationship with your lender is a partnership, however, and proactive & productive efforts must be initiated by both parties.
While I believe that your banker relationship is akin to marriage figuratively, I do believe that it is a partnership literally. In almost every presentation I’ve made through the winter and spring, I have described the partnership as follows:

“If you have a Debt to Net Worth figure of 1:1, that means your debts are level with your net worth. At that point your creditors have equal skin in the game as yo do; your lender’s ‘investment’ in your business is par with yours. You have a 50/50 partner.”

There are many farms with Debt to Net Worth figures that are 1:1 or higher. Where do you stack up? Do you have a “partner” by the definition of equal investment in your farm? It is only decent and respectful for both parties to behave in the relationship like a partnership.

Direct Questions

What is your mindset with it comes to your relationship with your lender? Is it friend or foe? Necessary evil or business partner?

How prepared are you, as the CEO of your company, to discuss your current situation and share your vision of your farm?

Are you excited for a dance or two on a first date, or are you expecting your date to be on bended knee by the end of the interaction?

From The Home Quarter

This is penned in large from the message that my old boss from my banking days used to lean on: early interactions between bankers and borrowers are like courtships; everyone spends time getting to know the other(s) and jostling for position to make the best impression. It takes time to build a trusting relationship, and like any first date, if either party pushes too hard too soon for too much, a second date is unlikely.

grain terminal

Outlook for Cash

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The biggest issue that I am working on with clients right now is cash. Cash continues to be tight at the farm gate, and our ability to predict cash flow is, as it always is, difficult. Even when we can contract grain sales with an adequate price and delivery date, the likelihood of actually being able to deliver as per the contracted date is often low. The challenges of managing debt and payables under those type of situations can be debated for days. We won’t berate it now.

As we look back over the last few years, we can identify what led to the current cash shortages. There is no point chiding anyone for those past decisions. What is in the past cannot be changed; we must acknowledge it and learn from it. After all, if we don’t learn from history, we’re doomed to repeat it.

Here are 3 strategies for managing cash as developed from my years in commercial lending and working with farmers on financial management:

Be conservative with projecting cash inflow.

Cash outflow has been allowed to increase lock step with, and sometimes outpacing, increases in cash inflow. This despite everyone knowing that farm cash inflow can be as unpredictable as the weather. Now we see many operations that are facing cash inflows like 2008 on required cash outflows of 2016. Calling the situation “tight” is at times an understatement.

Consider your lowest profit year in the last 10 years, and use your cash inflow from that year to compare it against your required cash outflow for 2016. How does that make you feel?

Protect working capital.

Recently, I tweeted, “Asset rich and cash poor will not suffice through this next cycle.” Many farms have squandered their opportunity to fill their working capital war chest because of large assets acquisitions and taking on significantly more debt for those acquisitions. Now, many of those same farms are borrowing every penny needed to operate the farm through a growing season. Working capital will be the greatest source of opportunity in the coming years. Access to adequate working capital could be the most limiting factor.

I read a piece recently that interviewed Dr. David Kohl (who I’ve quoted in the past.) Dr. Kohl says that his belief is the 60:30:10 profit plan. Of your farm’s profits, he says that 60% should go to growing the farm and making it more efficient, 10% to dividends, and 30% to working capital. Considering the general lack of working capital on currently on the farms, I suggest that the rule, in the short term anyway, be more like 80/20 with 80% of profits going towards building working capital and 20% going towards growth and efficiency; dividends might just have to wait.

Actually create and maintain a running cash flow statement.

Going through the exercise of constructing a monthly cash flow statement is often an “A-Ha” moment. Being able to clearly identify where and when your cash is flowing helps you understand how and when to best use operating credit, plan grain sales, or structure payment dates. While it is not new news anymore, it is worth repeating: set your payment dates for when you’ll actually have cash!

This is also a beneficial step to improving the relationship you have with your lender. When you can look your lender in the eye and tell them exactly how much operating credit you need, when you’ll need it most, and when you’ll pay it back shows that your focus on management is meeting their expectations.

Direct Questions

What changes would you make to your 2016 plans if you knew your cash inflow would be similar to your worst year in the last 10?

How have you invested your profits? How will you invest future profits?

What does your 2016 monthly cash flow projection look like?

From the Home Quarter

The outlook for cash will reach critical importance in the near future. Working capital will be the fuel for your growth in the coming years. Equity is the backstop. Equity does not pay bills, cash does. When cash is gone and unlikely to return, tapping into equity can replenish working capital, thus the “backstop.” The chase for equity over the last several decades in an effort to be “asset rich and cash poor,” like it was a badge of honor or something, has created a generation of farmers who would prefer to be rid of debt to the detriment of working capital.  It might be possible to finance growth and expansion without cash, but it is not possible to operate it.

barometer

Farm Business Barometer

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It’s harvest time. The weather has been uncooperative. The crop is generally not ready to go. Quality is diminishing. The August and September contracts Fred* had in place will not be delivered on time, even though the elevator has room, because his grain is still in the field and not in the bins. (* Fred isn’t anyone in particular. This story is fictional, but we need a lead character and decided to call him Fred.)

Finally, it looks like the weather will break, forecasting two weeks of high pressure, clear skies, and warm temperatures. Fred even has enough help between the hired staff, and family who have offered to come home for a week or so. He must get this crop off quickly, as fast as possible. Fred needs another combine.

Fred cannot afford to think about this for too long; everyone is in the same situation, and they could be looking at adding a combine to their farm as well. He heads into town, speaks with his salesperson, and acquires a quote. It’s higher than he wanted, or was expecting, but Fred is in a bind. He just heard that there are 2 other quotes on the same unit. He writes the cheque for a deposit.

Now comes the hard part – seeing the banker.

Fred recalls the feedback he was given before seeding time: things have been a little tight, and pulling back on any capital expenditures for a couple years would be best. What if this gets declined? How will he get the crop off in time? Is his deposit refundable? Fred scolds himself for not asking when he wrote the cheque.

Fred arrives at the banker’s office unannounced. Luckily she’s in the office today. Thankfully he doesn’t have to wait long. He explain the situation: things are getting worse by the day with poor weather degrading crop quality, and thereby crop price; he has lots of help to run extra equipment to get harvest done in record time…if he had another combine. When she asks if a decent combine can even be found at this juncture, Fred proudly produces the quote he just received no more than a half hour ago. She says she’ll take a look at things, and call right after lunch.

Fred heads home. The temperature is climbing and the wind is blowing; he thinks he could maybe get going this afternoon. Everything is serviced and ready to go; after all, he’s only done 150 ac so far. Fred heads in for lunch early, hoping that will speed up the call he is anxiously awaiting from the banker. He scans his phone for afternoon market updates, text messages from any neighbors who might be rolling, and that critical phone call from the banker that just isn’t coming fast enough.

He can’t sit around; Fred fires up the combine to go out and get a sample. The wheat sample looks bleached. He figures he’ll be lucky to get a #2. Sticking his hand in the pail Fred thinks “It feels close.” He rushes back to the yard to test it: 14.8! That can go in aeration! Let’s go!

Fred reaches for his phone to let everyone know to get ready to go, but realizes he left it in the combine in the field from which he just took a sample. Fred jumps in the semi, and even though it hasn’t warmed up enough yet, he hustles out to the field. Word will get to everyone via the house phone, and they’ll get out to the field right away.

Once back in the combine cab, Fred finds a message on his phone: it’s the banker! She wants him to call her right back. He does, and the call goes straight to voice mail. Fred swears.

She calls back in the time it took to fill one hopper. As Fred unloads into the truck, she tells him that she cannot approve a loan for the combine. She says that Fred’s cash flow is too low and his debt levels are too high to take on another liability for a “nice to have” asset. She talks about other options for this harvest, and offers clear feedback on what needs to happen in the future to not have these kinds of interactions with her again, but Fred has already stopped listening because he’s moved on to thinking about who else he can call for financing, wondering if the dealers program can turn an approval in less than an afternoon…

Fred immediately calls his salesperson at the dealer, and a couple other leasing companies, to ask them to begin an urgent credit application. They’ve got all his information now; he’s been in touch with them a couple times this year already when the banker has denied his other requests. Fred begins to wonder why he even bothered with the bank this time.

An hour later, Fred gets a call from the dealer; their financing division has approved his combine loan application. The interest rate is higher than his other loans, and the payment terms are more rigid, but he is not worried about that now – Fred can get that extra combine!

Jubilation turns to anxiety: the dealer cannot deliver until next week, and it hasn’t been through their shop. Fred will need to invest a half-day to have someone drive it home (who can be freed up to do that now that the harvest is rolling again?) Fred realizes this combine will probably need some repairs and some parts (more trips to town on the weekend.) On top of all that, he realizes that he’ll have to shut down himself to go in to town, sign the loan, sign the equipment sale agreement, and hopefully get to the insurance office before they close for the weekend. At this point, Fred might as well drive it home himself!

Yup, having a 3rd combine will make short work of Fred’s 5,300 acres! He acknowledges that he’ll have a serious amount of harvesting capacity for his farm size, and despite what he was told by the banker in spring and again today, Fred still got approved the loan. And if Fred got the loan, his business can’t be in as bad of shape as the banker says, right?

Direct Questions

Why does Fred exclusively use his creditor’s approval or decline of his credit applications as the barometer of his business’ financial stability and position?

How does Fred account for the differences in lending criteria and motivations between creditors when using their feedback as his business barometer?

What do you use as your barometer of business health?

From the Home Quarter

In our story, Fred clearly does not take the time, nor does he have the interest in understanding the financial ramifications on his business from the emotional decisions he makes. He continues to forge ahead by using any and every source of credit he can grasp. What happens when his requests are denied? Is it only then that his farm is in a position of financial weakness?

When focusing on priorities, I advise my clients that there are often times more important issues than upgrading equipment and constructing more buildings because credit is (relatively) easy to get, and has been for some time. As such, using credit approvals as the only, or primary, business barometer is narrow in scope, biased in feedback, and lofty in risk.

 

goal planning

Goal Planning 2016

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Thinking about 2016? Here are some of the goals that my clients are making a priority in the new-year:

  1. Reduce Equipment Cost per Acre
    Fully recognizing that equipment costs are one of the few expenses that are controllable on the farm, yet it is this controllable expense that is often least controlled, many farmers are looking hard to find efficiencies in their equipment line. The “nice to have” is being measured stringently against the “need to have” and consideration is being given to divesting assets that are deemed expendable.
  2. Establish a New Lender Relationship
    Each lender that plays in the ag field has an area of strength that makes them unique. Some rely heavily on equity; others focus more on cash flow. One may be strongest when lending for hard assets, another for operating credit, another for quota, and yet another for leasing. When your lender’s strong suit does not match your business plan, it is likely time to find a more fitting borrowing relationship.
    Unfortunately, if your borrowing approach has been piece-meal credit from several sources, the first step is for you to determine what your business goals are before seeking the right lender.
  3. Construct a Workable (Usable) Business Plan
    Having a formal business plan helps immensely when seeking a new lender. But if you’re only building a business plan to appease your lender, then please read on.
    A business plan is not a restriction like the “room seating capacity” on a liquor license. The business plan is your road map, your guide of the best actions to take in the immediate future based on expectations and identified risks. Your business plan will also lay out alternative maneuvers that will help you act quickly in the case of unforeseen circumstances.
    A business plan should not restrain you in a box; it should create awareness of opportunities & risks and lay out the best plan of action based on your existing situation and your goals.
  4. Define Appropriate Land Rental Rates
    In a trend fueled by greed, rental rates in many areas are now at unsustainable levels. Whether viewed as a factor of gross revenue per acre, or a factor of fair market value per acre, there are many geographic regions of the prairies where land rents are unsustainably high. (There are also some areas where rates are still very low/tenant favorable.) The landlords are not entirely to blame for getting us here, or for keeping us here. There first needed to be someone willing to pay exorbitant rates in the first place, and there continues to be those willing to keep paying them.
    Some of my clients desire a plan, a strategy, for determining a mutually beneficial land rent agreement with their landlords.  This can be a challenge when landlords are becoming increasingly distant and isolated from the goings on at the farmgate, not to mention absentee landlords who know nothing of modern farming. The argument for/against cash agreements, share agreements, and flexible agreements depends on many considerations, the most important of which is the relationship between landlord and tenant.
  5. Increase Financial Awareness and Confidence
    Even sophisticated business people find value in having an advisor critique the decisions being made on their farm. In a world with so much “noise,” confidence in our choices can be more difficult to realize when faced with multiple options (and no shortage of propaganda supporting/decrying each.) More and more farmers want an independent unbiased view of their financial position. Knowing where you stand today is key when trying to determine how to prepare for tomorrow.

Direct Questions

What are your goals for 2016? Have you documented them? Have you shared them with your family and/or your team?

How do you prioritize your goals? What makes them realistic and achievable?

What is your plan to ensure you meet your goals? What is your plan if circumstances change?

From the Home Quarter

A plan is only as good as the work that is put into it. It is true that things change very quickly in production agriculture: weather, markets, etc. Being prepared before such deviations will make managing the change easier, more efficient, and provide you more confidence when doing so. A business plan need not be a 48 page behemoth (who would actually refer back such large document throughout the year?) The purpose of your plan is to be prepared, decisive, and responsive. The physical document should reflect that.
We are helping several farm businesses refine their direction for 2016.
To set Your Farm Compass™ Strategy Plan for future success and growing profits, call me or send an email.

life

Managed Risk – Part 3: Credit

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You’ve read how I am a fan of Seth Godin’s daily blog. His entry on Thursday September 17 was titled
Serving Size. He writes about how it is “our instinct to fill the bowl” with “bowl” being a metaphor that
could apply to anything and everything from our homes to our egos. For now, let’s consider the “bowl”
to be thought of as “debt.”

If you’re like most farm businesses, you’ve been getting a bigger debt bowl over the last 5-7 years. In
fact, I would bet that if you looked back at your statements from 2005, you would wonder how you even
managed to operate with such little debt (relative to what you’re carrying today.) This is not unique, and
considering western Canadian agriculture (especially grains) has been in a boom for the last 7 years or
so, it is of little surprise that debt levels have also increased.

The question then begs, “How big can the bowls get?”

Lenders love to see strong cash flow and increasing equity. Record cash receipts and appreciating land
values have bolstered lenders’ appetite to lend into agriculture. With money being as cheap as it is (low
interest rates,) farms’ debt bowls have been easy to grow.

What’s been filling all those bowls? Primarily it has been rapidly appreciating land and an insatiable
thirst for more and newer equipment. You’ve read here in the past that there is a distinct difference
between “good debt” and “bad debt.” I challenge everyone to evaluate what is in their “bowls” and
identify the “bad debt.” What percentage of your total debt could be considered “bad?”

Generally speaking, bad debt is the unnecessary debt. Often poorly structured, it eats up cash flow like a
game of Hungry-Hungry Hippos chomps marbles, and it uses up the finite space in your bowl. Yes, there
will come a time when a bigger bowl cannot be had, and it is then that many will wish they had managed
their credit a little closer.

We talked about interest rates in last week’s article, and it spawned more reader feedback than I’ve
received in a while (I’ll credit that to harvest being a greater focus than commenting back to me.) Gerry
Bourgeois, Scotiabank’s Director of Agriculture Banking for Saskatchewan & Manitoba, offered an
interesting strategy in his reader feedback: “With interest rates at an all-time low, farmers with a lot of
debt on their balance sheet should be taking advantage of these current rates to consider locking in 5, 7,
or even 10 year money.” Acknowledging that rates are still going to go up, even if it will be later than
many had expected, Bourgeois says, “I view the current low rates as a compressed spring. Once they
start moving up, they will move up quickly.” He goes on to suggest “locking in rates and using derivatives
to hedge interest rate risk” as a sound strategy many farms could consider.

“Similar to how a farmer would use commodity derivatives in a trading account to hedge his commodity
pricing, we use financial derivatives to hedge interest rates on larger transactions,” Bourgeois says.
Using what are called Banker’s Acceptances, he describes how a “swap” works as a hedge against rate
increases, and alternatively can even goes so far as to structure a “cap” on potential future interest rate
increases, functioning like interest rate increase insurance. “Utilizing these market instruments can
provide greater flexibility in your hedges down the road,” he concludes.

To put more emphasis on managing your credit, here are some focal points to get you started:

  1. Understand how your lender views your business. Are you seen as risky? Are you considered
    highly leveraged? (IE. Can you get a bigger bowl, and if not, is it right full?)
  2. Recognize how your cash flow matches up with your debt obligations? More specifically can you
    meet your debt obligations should your cash flow decrease?
  3. Eliminate bad debt, and keep it out of your operation. Just because you can afford the payments
    today doesn’t mean you should buy, and it certainly doesn’t mean you can afford the payments
    next year either.
  4. Look back at the worst year you’ve had profit wise in the last 10 years. How much debt could
    you service if that was your profit for the next 3 years? Let this be your guide.
  5. If your bowl is full, what is your strategy in case of an emergency (Eg. tractor needs an engine)
    or an opportunity (Eg. prime land unexpectedly hits the market)

Direct Questions

What are you doing to protect yourself from market changes? (Eg. interest rate moves, lender’s
adjustment to credit policy, etc.)

How can you strengthen your overall debt structure?

What happens if your lender instructs you to use a smaller bowl?

From the Home Quarter

Every business needs access to credit to facilitate growth. It is the reckless depletion of many farms’
credit capacity that will further heighten a potential cash flow crisis stemming from shrinking gross
margins. While we cannot change the decisions of the past, we can learn from them. And there is no
time like the present to take steps to improve your debt situation if it’s not currently ideal. There is no
time like the present to strengthen your credit structure to protect what you’ve built considering the
current lending environment.

There are many circumstances where it is a smart decision to get a bigger bowl, but it is often smartest
to know when the bowl is big enough, or even when to get a smaller one

horizon

Managed Risk Part 2 – Interest Rates

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In a conversation recently with a young farmer, who I feel is a poster boy for excellent business
management, he disclosed that he’s far more concerned with rising interest rates than low commodity
prices. During our brief exchange on this topic, I stuck with my position that interest rates, if they move
up at all, will see modest increases because when we consider the volume of credit currently
outstanding, the effect (desired or not) of any increases would be dramatically slower spending and
investment. Currently, I see no reason domestically to raise interest rates. His position involved a
number of macroeconomic factors including China, the US, and the EU. Admittedly, I’m less fluent in
how China’s recession will affect the Bank of Canada’s prime rate or how it will trickle down to Canadian
agriculture, specifically primary producers, but no doubt there is an impact to consider.

Just because the Bank of Canada may not be raising its prime rate does not mean that lenders won’t
raise theirs. The Bank of Canada prime and the chartered bank’s prime are related, but not directly
connected. The Bank of Canada makes its decisions on economic factors. Lenders make their decisions
based on business factors and their expectation of a profit. Lenders most likely recognize that increasing
rates now would be harmful, but again they have profit expectations and dividends to pay.

Is your business the same? Do you have a profit expectation and dividends to pay to shareholders?
It was encouraged in Growing Farm Profits Weekly #11 on March 17, 2015 for everyone to do an
interest rate sensitivity calculation. I would enjoy hearing from readers who did an interest rate
sensitivity to understand what they learned from the exercise. For those of you who didn’t do one, here
are some points to ponder:

  • Interest costs on term credits are controllable only at the time you sign documents, or at
    renewal.
  • History shows that over the long term, floating interest rates are cheaper than fixed rates.
  • While enjoying the consistency that fixed rates offer, consider the ramifications of renewing all
    your fixed rates at the same time. Having no control over, nor any idea of, what future interest
    rates will be, what is your strategy to manage this risk?
    HINT: it’s something you climb, but it isn’t a tree. Call or email if you want to explore further.
  • The interest rate you pay to your lender is a direct representation of 2 factors:
    • The cost incurred by the lender to acquire the funds being lent to you, and
    • Your lender’s view of how risky your particular business is. IE: you might pay more or less interest
      than your neighbor if the lender views your farm as being more or less risky than your neighbor’s farm.
      (This is the significance of knowing what’s important to your lender!)
  • Competition for business is the 3rd factor affecting your interest rate – and it goes both ways.

At the end of the day, your control is over how much you borrow, and for what purpose. Bad debt is
unhealthy enough, but interest on bad debt is worse. Your interest strategy needs a blend of fixed and
floating rates, varying terms, and payment dates that align with your cash flow.

Direct Questions

Consider the pros and cons for each of “blended payments” and “fixed principal plus interest
payments.” Which payment structure best fits your needs?

When doing an interest rate sensitivity test, do the results scare your socks off?

What is your strategy for managing loan interest?

From the Home Quarter

The great equalizer across all farms is Mother Nature. What isn’t equal is how each farm manages risk.
Those who are averse to any debt often miss out on growth opportunities. Those who have a flippant
approach to debt often find themselves painted into a corner. It is a strategic and measured approach to
managing risk that sets apart the players in the game.

farm2

Prevention or Contingency?

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I read Alan Weiss regularly and one of his daily blog entries from early July gave me inspiration for this
week’s article.

Alan consults to Fortune 500 Companies and solo practitioners alike, and in the entry I refer to he asks
readers, “What are you doing with your clients, helping them to fight fires or to prevent them?”
Currently, I’m doing as much fire-fighting as I am fire prevention. I enjoy the latter far more, and I know
clients do to.

The challenge is that it is hard work to build and implement a prevention plan. It’s more fun to “give’r
while the going’s good” and figure out the rest later. For many farms, later has arrived and now it’s time
to fight fire.

The prevention plan will consider 3 metrics that must be maintained:

1. Working Capital
2. Debt to Equity
3. Cash Flow

graph15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Working Capital is simply the difference between your Current Assets and your Current Liabilities. To
complicate things, there is a process on how to include accurate figures for each; it’s not hard, but it
takes work. If your working capital is negative with little opportunity to return to positive, seek help
immediately.

Debt to Equity, usually represented as Debt:Equity or D:E, is a ratio of your total liabilities to your
equity. For realistic measurements, calculate your net worth for the equity figure. Net worth is fair
market value (FMV) of all “owned” assets less all liabilities. The difference is your net worth. If your
debts are $2million and your net worth is $1million, your D:E = 2:1. In some industries, a D:E of 2:1 is
acceptable; in agriculture, it is considered too high. Target your D:E at 1:1 or less.

Cash Flow is going to be the new-old buzz word. As it was the dominant focus of the 1990’s and early
2000’s, cash flow will once again be front and center. Total up you cash flow requirements for the year
and don’t leave anything out (like living expenses.) When compared to what expected gross production
revenues are going to be this year, are you happy with the result?

Direct Questions

Can you recognize and describe the importance of adequate working capital?

Debt to Equity is a measurement of “what you owe versus what you own.” Are you happy with how your
metric balances out?

Cash makes loan payments, equity does not. Are your financing obligations using up the cash you need
to pay bills, cover living expenses, or build adequate working capital?

From the Home Quarter

Your prevention plan needs to have these three metrics measured, tested, and measured again.
Strategies for how to manage your finite resources so as to build and maintain a prevention plan are
easier than fighting fires or trying to put together an emergency contingency plan when you first see
smoke. You might have excellent fire-fighting skills, and your contingency plan could be water tight, but
the fire still occurred. Isn’t it better to prevent what caused the fire then to fight it?

If you’d like help building your farm’s prevention plan, then call me or send an email.

GFP FI 2

The Drought Dilemma

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The smoky haze we started inhaling yesterday drives home more than ever just how dry it really is.
#Drought15 is the Twitter hashtag to learn about how bad it is beyond our respective back doors. By all
accounts, crops are suffering and market prices are starting to reflect it. Those who are in an area that
has been, and/or remains, too wet just might be coyly denying that they ever complained about the
rain.

While it is too early to get a handle on any semblance of accurate yield estimates, people I’ve been
talking with have tossed around phrases such as “July harvest” on lentils, and described wheat crops
that are ready to push heads despite only being approximately 2 feet tall. What might be in those heads
if another hot dry windy week prevails?

As a farmer, you are an optimist. Even the most pessimistic ornery old codger you can imagine is still an
optimist if he’s a farmer. If he wasn’t, he’d never put a crop in the ground each spring. But as optimistic
as “Well, if we get one good rain in the next 4-5 days” sounds, it’s not going to make it rain. Despite the
drizzle we’re seeing today, one rain does not make a crop. If you’ve got payments to make, payables to
cover, even payroll to meet, you might want to start thinking about how that will all get done if
#Drought15 persists.

  1. Speak with your creditors.
    They’re not clueless; they hear the weather forecasts and read the crop reports. But they also
    won’t assume; they won’t assume that you’ll have trouble making payments because your crop
    is not going to meet expectations. As far as they’re concerned, you’ll be fully capable of
    satisfying the obligations you promised to make when you signed the loan or lease
    documents…unless they hear otherwise.
    And remember, your lenders are not problem fixers, so coming to them after the trouble gets
    real makes it far more difficult. They have more opportunity to help when they can be proactive.
  2. Consider your options.
    Do you remember Growing Farm Profits Weekly Issue #9? “Life and business can often be like
    snowmobiling: when trouble is ahead sometimes you need to pull back and sometimes you
    need to stay on the throttle.” What is your best option considering your crop’s development to
    date? I recently read an article discussing the possibility of reseeding barley on fields that have
    been froze out or droughted out. Considering the dire need for feed this year, cattlemen will be
    interested in green feed or silage barley. Is it time to consider how that might pencil out?
  3. Change your plans.
    The decisions you made last year and the year before were based on the best information you
    had at the time. The current situation differs greatly and probably requires a new decision.
    Swallowing pride and allowing yourself to change/reverse/discard old decisions could be exactly
    what your business needs. Nay, it IS what your business needs because your business is
    constantly changing and so should your decisions. Knowing when to do so is just as important.

Direct Questions

How would you rate yourself as far as being agile to your financial obligations in light of poor crop
conditions?

How would your stress level decrease if you took 10% of the time and effort you spend on worrying
about the existing crop conditions and used it to contact your strategic partners and advisors to amend
2015 expectations?

Are you staunchly sticking to your past decisions or are you being flexible and responsive to the needs of
your business?

From the Home Quarter

About 17 or 18 months ago, I blogged about how we need to reset what our expectation of success
really is. After the record 2013 crop, the 2014 crop year was poised to be a real disappointment in
comparison. Considering so far this year we generally went from adequate or excessive moisture in
March to a drought by mid-May, I’d suggest we look at 2015 for what it is and be realistic about what
we can call success. To give you a glimpse of what I mean, in 2014 I was working with a farm that
projected an operating loss due to the excessive moisture, crop quality issues, dropping grain prices, and
high fixed costs. The comment during planning was “OK, so we’re expecting to lose only about $300,000
in 2014; that’s decent considering what it could be.” They reset their expectation of success based on
what they saw.

Take a good hard look at your current year, be realistic with expectations, and make changes as
required. We can help make sense of it, take the emotion out of it, and assist with establishing new
plans.

If you’d like help planning your farm for business and personal success, then call me or send an email.